IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceco/v75y2018icp31-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Ihli, Hanna Julia
  • Gassner, Anja
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda in an experimental setting. We consider a situation in which farmers are asked to make an investment under uncertainty and analyze whether and to what extent the Real Options Approach can predict the investment behavior of farmers and whether these predictions are better than those derived from the Net Present Value Approach. We also investigate whether the presence of a price floor has an effect on farmers’ investment behavior. Our results suggest that the Real Options Approach more accurately predicts the decision-making behavior of farmers than the Net Present Value Approach. However, the results also show that neither of the approaches entirely explains the observed investment behavior. Specifically, the presence of a price floor does not significantly affect the investment behavior. The latter is, however, significantly determined by the order in which treatments with and without price floor are introduced, alongside various demographic and socio-economic characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:31-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2018.04.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804318301927
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jutta Roosen & Stéphan Marette, 2011. "Making the "right" choice based on experiments: regulatory decisions for food and health," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 361-381, August.
    2. Ryan Oprea & Daniel Friedman & Steven T. Anderson, 2009. "Learning to Wait: A Laboratory Investigation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 1103-1124.
    3. W. Viscusi & Owen Phillips & Stephan Kroll, 2011. "Risky investment decisions: How are individuals influenced by their groups?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 81-106, October.
    4. Hans P. Binswanger, 1980. "Attitudes Toward Risk: Experimental Measurement in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 395-407.
    5. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    6. Cornelis Gardebroek & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink, 2004. "Farm‐specific Adjustment Costs in Dutch Pig Farming," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 3-24, March.
    7. repec:now:jnlrbe:105.00000046 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    9. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    10. Alekseev, Aleksandr & Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri, 2017. "Experimental methods: When and why contextual instructions are important," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 48-59.
    11. Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio & Savastano, Sara, 2009. "Optimal Farm Size under an Uncertain Land Market: the Case of Kyrgyz Republic," 111th Seminar, June 26-27, 2009, Canterbury, UK 52844, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Sara Savastano & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2009. "Optimal farm size in an uncertain land market: the case of Kyrgyz Republic," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(s1), pages 745-758, November.
    13. Jean-Paul Chavas & Kwansoo Kim, 2004. "A Heteroskedastic Multivariate Tobit Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of Price Floors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 576-593.
    14. Fellner, Gerlinde & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2007. "Risk attitude and market behavior: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 338-350, June.
    15. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-298, January.
    16. Jianakoplos, Nancy Ammon & Bernasek, Alexandra, 1998. "Are Women More Risk Averse?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 620-630, October.
    17. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Modelling investment and disinvestment decisions under competition, uncertainty and different market interventions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 443-452.
    18. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    19. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    20. Pascaline Dupas & Jonathan Robinson, 2013. "Savings Constraints and Microenterprise Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 163-192, January.
    21. Murat Isik & Madhu Khanna, 2003. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 305-317.
    22. Ruth Vargas Hill, 2010. "Investment and Abandonment Behavior of Rural Households: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1065-1086.
    23. Kerri Brick & Martine Visser & Justine Burns, 2012. "Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence from South African Fishing Communities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 133-152.
    24. Murat Isik, 2005. "Incorporating decision makers' risk preferences into real options models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 729-734.
    25. Amy Purvis & William G. Boggess & Charles B. Moss & John Holt, 1995. "Technology Adoption Decisions under Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Ex Ante Appproach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 541-551.
    26. Brian E. Roe & David R. Just, 2009. "Internal and External Validity in Economics Research: Tradeoffs between Experiments, Field Experiments, Natural Experiments, and Field Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1266-1271.
    27. Kyösti S. Pietola & Robert J. Myers, 2000. "Investment under Uncertainty and Dynamic Adjustment in the Finnish Pork Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 956-967.
    28. Kenneth A. Baerenklau, 2005. "Toward an Understanding of Technology Adoption: Risk, Learning, and Neighborhood Effects," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(1).
    29. Jeremy D. Foltz, 2004. "Entry, Exit, and Farm Size: Assessing an Experiment in Dairy Price Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 594-604.
    30. Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs' and non-entrepreneurs' disinvestment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 30-44, October.
    31. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2009. "Modelling the impact of the CAP Single Farm Payment on farm investment and output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 395-423, September.
    32. Jan-Henning Feil & Oliver Musshoff & Alfons Balmann, 2013. "Policy impact analysis in competitive agricultural markets: a real options approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 633-658, September.
    33. Martin Odening & Oliver Mußhoff & Alfons Balmann, 2005. "Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 47-60, January.
    34. Ruth Vargas Hill, 2009. "Using Stated Preferences and Beliefs to Identify the Impact of Risk on Poor Households," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 151-171.
    35. Teresa Serra & Spiro Stefanou & José M. Gil & Allen Featherstone, 2009. "Investment rigidity and policy measures," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 103-120, March.
    36. Ruth Vargas Hill, 2010. "Liberalisation and Producer Price Risk: Examining Subjective Expectations in the Ugandan Coffee Market," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(4), pages 433-458, August.
    37. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, March.
    38. Jean-Paul Chavas, 1994. "Production and Investment Decisions Under Sunk Cost and Temporal Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 114-127.
    39. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2013. "Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-318, June.
    40. Abdullah Yavas & C. Sirmans, 2005. "Real Options: Experimental Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 27-52, August.
    41. Alex Winter-Nelson & Koffi Amegbeto, 1998. "Option Values to Conservation and Agricultural Price Policy: Application to Terrace Construction in Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 409-418.
    42. Arthur Schram, 2005. "Artificiality: The tension between internal and external validity in economic experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 225-237.
    43. Lewellen, Wilbur G & Lease, Ronald C & Schlarbaum, Gary G, 1977. "Patterns of Investment Strategy and Behavior among Individual Investors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(3), pages 296-333, July.
    44. Ruth Hill & Angelino Viceisza, 2012. "A field experiment on the impact of weather shocks and insurance on risky investment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 15(2), pages 341-371, June.
    45. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    46. Fafchamps, Marcel & Pender, John, 1997. "Precautionary Saving, Credit Constraints, and Irreversible Investment: Theory and Evidence from Semiarid India," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(2), pages 180-194, April.
    47. Nassul Ssentamu Kabunga & Thomas Dubois & Matin Qaim, 2012. "Heterogeneous information exposure and technology adoption: the case of tissue culture bananas in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 473-486, September.
    48. H. Douglas Jose & James A. Crumly, 1993. "Psychological Type of Farm/Ranch Operators: Relationship to Financial Measures," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 121-132.
    49. Zimmerman, Frederick J. & Carter, Michael R., 2003. "Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-260, August.
    50. Steven J. Humphrey & Arjan Verschoor, 2004. "Decision-making Under Risk among Small Farmers in East Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(1), pages 44-101, March.
    51. Quoc V. Luong & Loren W. Tauer, 2006. "A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 49-57, July.
    52. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
    53. Thea Nielsen & Alwin Keil & Manfred Zeller, 2013. "Assessing farmers’ risk preferences and their determinants in a marginal upland area of Vietnam: a comparison of multiple elicitation techniques," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 255-273, May.
    54. Chetan Dave & Catherine Eckel & Cathleen Johnson & Christian Rojas, 2010. "Eliciting risk preferences: When is simple better?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 219-243, December.
    55. Sarah Jacobson & Ragan Petrie, 2009. "Learning from mistakes: What do inconsistent choices over risk tell us?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 143-158, April.
    56. Richards, Timothy J. & Green, Gareth P., 2003. "Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 1-14, April.
    57. Richards, Timothy J. & Green, Gareth P., 2003. "Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, April.
    58. Silke Hüttel & Oliver Mußhoff & Martin Odening, 2010. "Investment reluctance: irreversibility or imperfect capital markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 51-76, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:31-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.