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Liberalisation and Producer Price Risk: Examining Subjective Expectations in the Ugandan Coffee Market

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  • Ruth Vargas Hill

Abstract

The transfer of marketing responsibilities from the state to private agents in developing country commodity markets has enhanced competitiveness in these markets. One consequence of this has been an increase in the extent to which fluctuations in international commodity prices are passed from exporters to domestic traders, and to producers. This paper presents unique data on farmer perceptions of coffee price risk in Uganda's post-liberalised market. Perceived price risk is found to be substantial, as expected. Less expectedly, perceived price risk is found to vary quite substantially across households. An analysis of this variance suggests that differences in coffee prices received in past seasons and the salience of particular prices explain a significant portion of this variation. Interventions that both provide market information and train farmers to better understand price determination would seem desirable. Copyright 2010 The author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruth Vargas Hill, 2010. "Liberalisation and Producer Price Risk: Examining Subjective Expectations in the Ugandan Coffee Market," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(4), pages 433-458, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:433-458
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejq010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Depetris Chauvin, Nicolas & Porto, Guido G., 2011. "Market Competition in Export Cash Crops and Farm Income," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126159, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    3. Lodovico Muratori, 2016. "Price Gap along the Ugandan Coffee Value Chain," Working Papers 1/16, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    4. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," Discussion Papers 154775, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    5. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:3:p:727-748 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    7. Ahmed, Mohamed M. & Balie, Jean, 2016. "Why is it important to measure the Market Development Gap? An application to the agricultural sector of Uganda," 2016 AAAE Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246446, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    8. Latynskiy, Evgeny & Berger, Thomas, 2015. "UTZ certification for groups of smallholder coffee farmers: Hype of hope?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229069, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Latynskiy, Evgeny & Berger, Thomas, 2016. "Networks of Rural Producer Organizations in Uganda: What Can be Done to Make Them Work Better?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-586.
    10. Thiagu Ranganathan & Usha Ananthakumar, 2017. "Hedging in Presence of Crop Yield, Crop Revenue and Rainfall Insurance," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 151-171, March.

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