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Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Albuquerque, Rui
  • De Araujo, Bruno
  • Brandao-Marques, Luis
  • Mosse, Geravásia
  • De Vletter, Pippy
  • Zavale, Helder

Abstract

This paper uses data on farmers' price expectations from a randomized survey of smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Survey data show that across all crops most interviewed farmers expect prices to be higher in the lean season. Yet, farmers report selling most of their output shortly after harvest when prices are lower. We find that higher expected prices and lower current sale prices are associated with increased storage for liquidity constrained farmers versus unconstrained farmers. We develop an intertemporal model of market timing in the presence of liquidity constraints that is consistent with these findings and discuss other model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Albuquerque, Rui & De Araujo, Bruno & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Mosse, Geravásia & De Vletter, Pippy & Zavale, Helder, 2021. "Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 16220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16220
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity constraints; Market timing; Household expectations; Pricing; Storage; Developing economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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