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Optimal Farm Size under an Uncertain Land Market: the Case of Kyrgyz Republic

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  • Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio
  • Savastano, Sara

Abstract

The paper illustrates a theoretical model of real option value applied to the problem of land development. Making use of the 1998-2001 Kyrgyz Household Budget Survey, we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds, the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive. In addition to that, the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land. The direct consequence is that, in the first case, smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where, in the second case, larger farms will exercise first. The results corroborate the findings of the theoretical model and suggest three main conclusions: (i) the combination of uncertainty and irreversibility is a significant factor in the land development decisions, (ii) farmers’ behaviour is consistent with the continuous profit maximization model, (iii) farming unit revenue tends to be positively related to farm size, once uncertainty is properly accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio & Savastano, Sara, 2009. "Optimal Farm Size under an Uncertain Land Market: the Case of Kyrgyz Republic," 111th Seminar, June 26-27, 2009, Canterbury, UK 52844, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa111:52844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Understanding the Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150331, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Brück, Tilman & Esenaliev, Damir & Kroeger, Antje & Kudebayeva, Alma & Mirkasimov, Bakhrom & Steiner, Susan, 2014. "Household survey data for research on well-being and behavior in Central Asia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 819-835.
    3. A. Bailey & S. Davidova & P. Hazell, 2009. "Introduction to the special issue "small farms: decline or persistence?"," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(s1), pages 715-717, November.
    4. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2013. "Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-318, June.
    5. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the investment behavior of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124650, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Vollmer, Elisabeth & Hermann, Daniel & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2015. "Deviations from the real options benchmark - An experimental approach to (non) optimal investment decisions of conventional and organic hog farmers," 2015 Conference (59th), February 10-13, 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand 202585, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 0. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 51.
    8. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option value theory; Farm size; Uncertainty; irreversibility; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q12; Q15; Q18;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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