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Optimal Farm Size under an Uncertain Land Market: the Case of Kyrgyz Republic

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Abstract

The paper illustrates a theoretical model of real option value applied to the problem of land development. Making use of the 1998-2001 Kyrgyz Household Budget Survey, we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds, the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive. In addition to that, the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land. The direct consequence is that, in the first case, smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where, in the second case, larger farms will exercise first. The results corroborate the findings of the theoretical model and suggest three main conclusions: (i) the combination of uncertainty and irreversibility is a significant factor in the land development decisions, (ii) farmers’ behaviour is consistent with the continuous profit maximization model, (iii) farming unit revenue tends to be positively related to farm size, once uncertainty is properly accounted for.

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  • Sara Savastano & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2010. "Optimal Farm Size under an Uncertain Land Market: the Case of Kyrgyz Republic," CEIS Research Paper 154, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:154
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    2. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the investment behavior of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124650, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Vollmer, Elisabeth & Hermann, Daniel & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2015. "Deviations from the real options benchmark - An experimental approach to (non) optimal investment decisions of conventional and organic hog farmers," 2015 Conference (59th), February 10-13, 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand 202585, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Xie, Xiangxiang & Zhang, Anlu & Wen, Lanjiao & Bin, Peng, 2019. "How horizontal integration affects transaction costs of rural collective construction land market? An empirical analysis in Nanhai District, Guangdong Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 138-146.
    5. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    6. A. Bailey & S. Davidova & P. Hazell, 2009. "Introduction to the special issue “small farms: decline or persistence?”," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(s1), pages 715-717, November.
    7. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2013. "Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-318, June.
    8. František Střeleček & Jana Lososová & Radek Zdeněk, 2010. "Size and structure of return to scale in revenue function and cost function [Velikost a struktura efektu z rozsahu ve výnosové a nákladové funkci]," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 58(6), pages 491-502.
    9. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
    10. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Understanding the Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150331, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 2012. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(3), pages 1-28, August.
    12. Beer, Lara & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2020. "Factors influencing German farmer’s decision to grow alley cropping systems as ecological focus areas: a regression analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 23(4), June.
    13. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 154775, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    14. František STŘELEČEK & Radek ZDENĚK & Jana LOSOSOVÁ, 2011. "Influence of production change on return to scale," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(4), pages 159-168.
    15. Ihli, Hanna J. & Maart-Noelck, Syster C. & Musshoff, Oliver, 2014. "Does timing matter? A real options experiment to farmers’ investment and disinvestment behaviours," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(3), July.
    16. Ateka, Josiah & Onono-Okelo, Perez Ayieko & Etyang, Martin, 2021. "Does the inverse farm size productivity hypothesis hold for perennial monocrop systems in developing countries? Evidence from Kenya," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option value theory; Farm size; Uncertainty; irreversibility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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