IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare12/124294.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Impact Analysis on Investments and Disinvestments under Competition: A Real Options Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Feil, Jan-Henning
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

In consequence of changes in general conditions, a higher level of investments and disinvestments in agriculture can be expected. To date, however, there are no policy impact analyses on both investments and disinvestments in competitive agricultural markets in a dynamic-stochastic context. This paper aims to develop a conceptual real options market model, which allows the impact assessment of different political schemes on investment and disinvestment thresholds and the sectoral welfare. Exemplarily, the effects of price floors, investment subsidies and production ceilings are analysed. The results show that the consideration of limited reversibility, that is disinvestments, is of relevance as it can impact the assessment of specific policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Policy Impact Analysis on Investments and Disinvestments under Competition: A Real Options Approach," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124294, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare12:124294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124294
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quoc V. Luong & Loren W. Tauer, 2006. "A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 49-57, July.
    2. Teresa Serra & Spiro Stefanou & José M. Gil & Allen Featherstone, 2009. "Investment rigidity and policy measures," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 103-120, March.
    3. Balmann, Alfons & Musshoff, Oliver, 2002. "Real Options and Competition: The Impact of Depreciation and Reinvestment," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24934, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    5. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
    6. Isik, Murat & Coble, Keith H. & Hudson, Darren & House, Lisa O., 2003. "A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 28(3), May.
    7. Marten Graubner & Alfons Balmann & Richard J. Sexton, 2011. "Spatial Price Discrimination in Agricultural Product Procurement Markets: A Computational Economics Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 949-967.
    8. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
    9. T. Jeffrey Price & Marshall C. Lamb & Michael E. Wetzstein, 2005. "Technology choice under changing peanut policies," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 11-19, July.
    10. Ruth Vargas Hill, 2010. "Investment and Abandonment Behavior of Rural Households: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1065-1086.
    11. Ioannis Karatzas & Fridrik M. Baldursson, 1996. "Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 69-89.
    12. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    13. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    14. Odening, Martin & Mu[ss]hoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert & Balmann, Alfons, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty--Does competition matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 994-1014, March.
    15. John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
    16. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2009. "Modelling the impact of the CAP Single Farm Payment on farm investment and output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 395-423, September.
    17. Lansink, Alfons Oude & Peerlings, Jack, 1996. "Modelling the New EU Cereals and Oilseeds Regime in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 161-178.
    18. Cacho, Oscar J. & Simmons, Phil, 1999. "A genetic algorithm approach to farm investment," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(3), September.
    19. Martin Odening & Oliver Mußhoff & Alfons Balmann, 2005. "Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 47-60, January.
    20. Timothy J. Richards & Paul M. Patterson, 1998. "Hysteresis and the Shortage of Agricultural Labor," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 683-695.
    21. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2006. "Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 43-56.
    22. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real options; competition; policy impact analysis; genetic algoritms; Marketing; Political Economy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare12:124294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.