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A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty

  • Isik, Murat
  • Coble, Keith H.
  • Hudson, Darren
  • House, Lisa O.

Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms, such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm, involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than the net present value (NPV) rule indicates. The inactive firm is more reluctant to enter the market when it takes into account demand uncertainty because it preserves the opportunity of making a better investment later. The active firm is more reluctant to abandon the investment because there is an option value of keeping the operation alive. There is a greater distance between the entry and exit thresholds under the option-value approach than under the NPV rule due to demand uncertainty. The results have implications for agribusiness decision-making. © 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Article provided by Blackwell in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 215-224

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Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:28:y:2003:i:3:p:215-224
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  1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  2. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  3. Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu, 2002. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences And Adoption Of Site-Specific Technologies," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu, 2002. "Variable-Rate Nitrogen Application Under Uncertainty: Implications For Profitability And Nitrogen Use," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
  6. Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2001. "Sequential Investment In Site-Specific Crop Management Under Output Price Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
  8. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
  9. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
  10. Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998. "Moving From Uniform To Variable Fertilizer Rates On Iowa Corn: Effects On Rates And Returns," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December.
  11. Gary Kachanoski, 1999. "Economic Feasibility of Variable-Rate Technology for Nitrogen on Corn," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 914-927.
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