IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/apu/wpaper/2011-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: the case of bioenergy sector

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre-André Jouvet
  • Elodie Lecadre
  • Caroline Orset

Abstract

We analyse the decision of an agent to invest and engage in industrial activities that are characterized by two forms of uncertainty: market size uncertainty and competitive effect uncertainty. We apply our model on the bioenergy industries. We compare the case of an ambiguity neutral agent with that of an ambiguity averse agent. We show that the investment decision of an agent depends on the effects of both the capital investment and the level of production on the cost and the uncertainty the agent is confronted with. Moreover, we find that ambiguity aversion tends to decrease the agent's optimal levels of production and investment. Our numerical analysis of the French case illustrates the different effects associated with market size uncertainty and competitive effect uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-André Jouvet & Elodie Lecadre & Caroline Orset, 2011. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: the case of bioenergy sector," Working Papers 2011/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
    • Handle: RePEc:apu:wpaper:2011/01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www6.versailles-grignon.inra.fr/economie_publique/Media/fichiers/Working-Papers/Working-Papers-2011/2011_01
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2012. "Decision Theory Under Ambiguity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 234-270, April.
    2. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November.
    3. Dangl, Thomas, 1999. "Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 415-428, September.
    4. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    5. Christian Gollier, 2007. "Comment intégrer le risque dans le calcul économique ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(2), pages 209-223.
    6. Engle Warnick James C. & Escobal Javier & Laszlo Sonia C., 2011. "Ambiguity Aversion and Portfolio Choice in Small-Scale Peruvian Farming," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-56, November.
    7. Isik, Murat & Coble, Keith H. & Hudson, Darren & House, Lisa O., 2003. "A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 215-224, May.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Nalin Kulatilaka & Enrico C. Perotti, 1998. "Strategic Growth Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1021-1031, August.
    10. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:119-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei, 2010. "A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 627-637, May.
    12. Mario J. Miranda & Paul L. Fackler, 2004. "Applied Computational Economics and Finance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633094, December.
    13. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    14. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    15. Schmit, Todd M. & Luo, Jianchuan & Tauer, Loren W., 2008. "Ethanol Plant Investment using Net Present Value and Real Options Analyses," Working Papers 51145, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    16. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2009. "Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-248, March.
    17. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    18. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    19. Uslu, Ayla & Faaij, André P.C. & Bergman, P.C.A., 2008. "Pre-treatment technologies, and their effect on international bioenergy supply chain logistics. Techno-economic evaluation of torrefaction, fast pyrolysis and pelletisation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1206-1223.
    20. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
    21. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    22. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    23. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    24. Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    2. Yi, Fujin & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Thome, Karen, 2013. "An Analysis of the Effects of Government Subsidies and the Renewable Fuels Standard on the Fuel Ethanol Industry: A Structural Econometric Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Stefan Dragos Cirstea & Andreea Cirstea & Irimie Emil Popa & Gabriel Radu, 2019. "The Role of Bioenergy in Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy – Study on EU Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(50), pages 1-75, February.
    4. repec:aud:audfin:v:21:y:2019:i:50:p:75 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elodie Le Cadre & Caroline Orset, 2010. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: The case of bioenergy sector," Working Papers 2010/03, INRA, Economie Publique.
    2. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
    3. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2019. "Crude oil price uncertainty and corporate investment: New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 54-65.
    5. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Fouilloux, Jessica & Moraux, Franck & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2015. "Investing in finite-life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 310-320.
    7. Yang, Baochen & An, Haokai & Song, Xinyu, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and corporate inefficient investment: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    10. Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
    11. Faninam, Farzan & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M. & Vera, J.C., 2023. "Real Options Models without Single-Investment Threshold Behavior," Other publications TiSEM e02a7330-d8ca-4e1e-9564-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    13. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Rossi Silveira, Rafael, 2023. "How economic depreciation shapes the relationship of uncertainty with investments’ size & timing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    14. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
    15. Faninam, Farzan, 2023. "The Impact of Multiple Investment Opportunities on the Initial Investment," Other publications TiSEM 86ec19ad-bd36-470a-88c7-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
    17. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "The uncertainty-investment relationship with endogenous capacity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
    19. H. Rajesh Acharya & C. Anver Sadath, 2016. "Energy Price Uncertainty and Investment: Firm Level Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 364-373.
    20. S H Martzoukos, 2009. "Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 843-858, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Bioenergy; Irreversible investment; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:apu:wpaper:2011/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Régis Grateau (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epinrfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.