An Analysis of the Effects of Government Subsidies and the Renewable Fuels Standard on the Fuel Ethanol Industry: A Structural Econometric Model
This paper analyses the effects of the expiration of the volumetric ethanol subsidy and the implementation of the renewable fuels standard (RFS) on the U.S. fuel ethanol industry. Analyses that ignore the dynamic implications of these policies, including their effects on incumbent ethanol firms’ investment, production, and exit decisions and on potential entrants’ entry behavior, may generate incomplete estimates of the impact of the policies and misleading predictions of the future evolution of the fuel ethanol industry. In this paper, we construct a dynamic model to recover the entire cost structure of the industry including the distributions of fixed entry costs and of exit scrap values. We use the estimated parameters to evaluate 3 different types of subsidy: a volumetric production subsidy, an investment subsidy, and an entry subsidy, each with and without the RFS. Results show that the RFS is a critically important policy to support the sustainability of corn-based fuel ethanol production, and that investment subsidies and entry subsidies are more effective than production subsidies.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Gallagher & Guenter Schamel & Hosein Shapouri & Heather Brubaker, 2006. "The international competitiveness of the U.S. corn-ethanol industry: A comparison with sugar-ethanol processing in Brazil," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 109-134.
- Stephen Ryan, 2005.
"The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry,"
0510, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Stephen P. Ryan, 2012. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1019-1061, 05.
- Stephen Ryan, 2006. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," 2006 Meeting Papers 9, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pierre-André Jouvet & Elodie Lecadre & Caroline Orset, 2011.
"Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: the case of bioenergy sector,"
2011/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
- Jouvet, Pierre-André & Le Cadre, Elodie & Orset, Caroline, 2012. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: The case of bioenergy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-53.
- Pierre-André Jouvet & Elodie Le Cadre & Caroline Orset, 2011. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: the case of bioenergy sector," Working Papers 1104, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007.
"Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition,"
Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09.
- Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," NBER Working Papers 10450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Levin (Stanford University) & Pat Bajari & Lanier Benkard, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 627, Econometric Society.
- Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Levin, Jonathan, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Research Papers 1852r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- J. Levin & P. Bajari, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," 2004 Meeting Papers 579, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
- Anderson, Soren T., 2012.
"The demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 151-168.
- Schmit, Todd M. & Luo, Jianchuan & Tauer, Loren W., 2008. "Ethanol Plant Investment using Net Present Value and Real Options Analyses," Working Papers 51145, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Zubairy, Sarah, 2010. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks," MPRA Paper 26051, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Schmit, T.M. & J., Luo & Conrad, J.M., 2011. "Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1194-1205.
- Gallagher, Paul W. & Brubaker, Heather & Shapouri, Hosein, 2005. "Plant Size: Capital Cost Relationships in the Dry Mill Ethanol Industry," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Richardson, James W. & Lemmer, Wessel J. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 10(02).
- Gonzalez, Asa O. & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2012. "A public policy aid for bioenergy investment: Case study of failed plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 465-473.
- Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
- Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Gill, Robert Chope, II, 2007. "Including Risk in Economic Feasibility Analyses: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 25(2).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.