Estimating the Influence of Ethanol Policy on Plant Investment Decisions: A Real Options Analysis with Two Stochastic Variables
Ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the consideration of volatility in both revenue and cost components, as well as the correlation between them. The effects of policy affecting plant revenues dominate the effects of those policies affecting production costs. In the absence of these policies, much of the recent expansionary periods would have not existed and market conditions in the late-1990s would have led to some plant closures. We also show that, regardless of plant size, national ethanol policy has narrowed the distance between the optimal entry and exit curves, implying a more narrow range of inactivity and a more volatile evolution for the industry than would have existed otherwise.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Warren Hall, Ithaca NY 14853|
Web page: http://aem.cornell.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rajagopal, Deepak & Zilberman, David, 2007. "Review of environmental, economic and policy aspects of biofuels," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4341, The World Bank.
- de Gorter Harry & Just David R, 2008. "The Economics of the U.S. Ethanol Import Tariff with a Blend Mandate and Tax Credit," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, December.
- Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2002. "Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 696-706, February.
- Harry de Gorter & David R. Just, 2008. "The Economics of a Blend Mandate for Biofuels," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(3), pages 738-750.
- Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
- Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
- Schmit, Todd M. & Luo, Jianchuan & Tauer, Loren W., 2008. "Ethanol Plant Investment using Net Present Value and Real Options Analyses," Working Papers 51145, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Harry de Gorter & David R. Just, 2007. "The Welfare Economics of a Biofuel Tax Credit and the Interaction Effects with Price Contingent Farm Subsidies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(2), pages 477-488.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989.
"Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
- Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
- Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz, 2008.
"Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 918-932.
- Elobeid, Amani E. & Tokgoz, Simla, 2007. "Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 9808, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Kim, Hyun Seok & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2008. "Can Real Option Value Explain Why Producers Appear to Store Too Long?," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37602, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Paul L. Fackler & Michael J. Livingston, 2002. "Optimal Storage by Crop Producers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 645-659.
- Jimmy E. Hilliard & Jorge A. Reis, 1999. "Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 273-286.
- Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp468, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:126963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.