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Global Warming: When to Bite the Bullet

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  • Jon M. Conrad

Abstract

An option-value (or stopping-rule) model is developed to determine the optimal timing and expected value of policies (bullets) to slow global warming. The model and policies are calibrated to reflect current estimates or predictions of temperature drift, variance, damage, and the cost of slowing global warming. The "basic" and "asymptotic" bullets have option values of between $600 and $700 billion dollars for a discount rate of 5 percent. The most effective (platinum) bullet is not adopted until mean global temperature reaches a trigger value of 15.54°C, which is not likely to be reached during the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon M. Conrad, 1997. "Global Warming: When to Bite the Bullet," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(2), pages 164-173.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:73:y:1997:i:2:p:164-173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Alberini Anna, 1995. "Efficiency vs Bias of Willingness-to-Pay Estimates: Bivariate and Interval-Data Models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 169-180, September.
    3. OKUBO Toshihiro & Matthew A. COLE & Robert J.R. ELLIOTT, 2010. "Environmental Outsourcing," Discussion papers 10055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Paul R. Portney, 1994. "The Contingent Valuation Debate: Why Economists Should Care," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 3-17, Fall.
    5. Smith, V Kerry & Desvousges, William H, 1986. "The Value of Avoiding a Lulu: Hazardous Waste Disposal Sites," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 293-299, May.
    6. Cameron Trudy Ann & Quiggin John, 1994. "Estimation Using Contingent Valuation Data from a Dichotomous Choice with Follow-Up Questionnaire," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 218-234, November.
    7. Loomis, John B., 1990. "Comparative reliability of the dichotomous choice and open-ended contingent valuation techniques," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 78-85, January.
    8. Peter A. Diamond & Jerry A. Hausman, 1994. "Contingent Valuation: Is Some Number Better than No Number?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 45-64, Fall.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agliardi, Elettra & Sereno, Luigi, 2011. "The effects of environmental taxes and quotas on the optimal timing of emission reductions under Choquet–Brownian uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2793-2802.
    2. Conrad, Jon M. & Lopez, Andres, 2000. "Stochastic Water Quality: The Timing and Option Value of Treatment," Working Papers 127675, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    3. E. Agliardi & L. Sereno, 2012. "On the optimal timing of switching from non-renewable to renewable resources: dirty vs clean energy sources and the relative efficiency of generators," Working Papers wp855, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Agliardi, Elettra & Sereno, Luigi, 2012. "Environmental protection, public finance requirements and the timing of emission reductions," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 715-739, December.
    5. Baudry, Marc, 1999. "Stock externalities and the diffusion of less polluting capital: an option approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 395-420, December.
    6. Schmit, T.M. & J., Luo & Conrad, J.M., 2011. "Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1194-1205.
    7. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2012. "The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-382.
    8. Yemshanov, Denys & McCarney, Geoffrey R. & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty) & Unterschultz, Jim & McKenney, Daniel W., 2015. "A real options-net present value approach to assessing land use change: A case study of afforestation in Canada," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 327-336.
    9. Mason, Charles F., 2001. "Nonrenewable Resources with Switching Costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 65-81, July.
    10. Wirl, Franz, 2006. "Consequences of irreversibilities on optimal intertemporal CO2 emission policies under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 105-123, May.
    11. Conrad, Jon M., 2000. "Wilderness: options to preserve, extract, or develop," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 205-219, July.

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