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Global Warming: When to Bite the Bullet

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  • Jon M. Conrad

Abstract

An option-value (or stopping-rule) model is developed to determine the optimal timing and expected value of policies (bullets) to slow global warming. The model and policies are calibrated to reflect current estimates or predictions of temperature drift, variance, damage, and the cost of slowing global warming. The "basic" and "asymptotic" bullets have option values of between $600 and $700 billion dollars for a discount rate of 5 percent. The most effective (platinum) bullet is not adopted until mean global temperature reaches a trigger value of 15.54°C, which is not likely to be reached during the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon M. Conrad, 1997. "Global Warming: When to Bite the Bullet," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(2), pages 164-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:73:y:1997:i:2:p:164-173
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Conrad, Jon M. & Lopez, Andres, 2000. "Stochastic Water Quality: The Timing and Option Value of Treatment," Working Papers 127675, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Agliardi, Elettra & Sereno, Luigi, 2012. "Environmental protection, public finance requirements and the timing of emission reductions," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 715-739, December.
    3. Conrad, Jon M., 1998. "Wilderness: Options to Preserve, Extract or Develop," Working Papers 179388, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    4. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2012. "The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 369-382.
    5. Mason, Charles F., 2001. "Nonrenewable Resources with Switching Costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 65-81, July.
    6. Davis, Rebecca J. & Sims, Charles, 2016. "To Frack or Not to Frack: Option Value Analysis on the U.S. Natural Gas Market," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Agliardi, Elettra & Sereno, Luigi, 2011. "The effects of environmental taxes and quotas on the optimal timing of emission reductions under Choquet–Brownian uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2793-2802.
    8. E. Agliardi & L. Sereno, 2012. "On the optimal timing of switching from non-renewable to renewable resources: dirty vs clean energy sources and the relative efficiency of generators," Working Papers wp855, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Daisuke Murakami & Tomoko Matsui & Tor A. Myrvoll, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 type events on the economy and climate under the stochastic DICE model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(3), pages 459-476, July.
    10. Baudry, Marc, 1999. "Stock externalities and the diffusion of less polluting capital: an option approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 395-420, December.
    11. Schmit, T.M. & J., Luo & Conrad, J.M., 2011. "Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1194-1205.
    12. Yemshanov, Denys & McCarney, Geoffrey R. & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty) & Unterschultz, Jim & McKenney, Daniel W., 2015. "A real options-net present value approach to assessing land use change: A case study of afforestation in Canada," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 327-336.
    13. Wirl, Franz, 2006. "Consequences of irreversibilities on optimal intertemporal CO2 emission policies under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 105-123, May.
    14. Conrad, Jon M., 2000. "Wilderness: options to preserve, extract, or develop," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 205-219, July.
    15. Hui Wang, 2005. "A Sequential Entry Problem with Forced Exits," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 501-520, May.

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