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A public policy aid for bioenergy investment: Case study of failed plants

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  • Gonzalez, Asa O.
  • Karali, Berna
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

Recent failures of renewable energy plants have raised concerns regarding government's role in providing credit subsidies and have harmed the long-run development of renewable energy. The major reason for these failures lies in government loan appraisers not having a model that addresses these root causes and instead relying on traditional net present value (NPV) analysis. What is required is a model representing entrepreneurs' investment decision processes when faced with uncertainty, irreversibility, and flexibility that characterize renewable energy investments. The aim is to develop such a model with a real options analysis (ROA) criterion as the foundation. A case study comparing NPV with ROA decisions for 50 and 100 million gallon ethanol plants is used as a basis for future development of a template government loan appraisers can use for evaluating the feasibility of renewable energy investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalez, Asa O. & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2012. "A public policy aid for bioenergy investment: Case study of failed plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 465-473.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:51:y:2012:i:c:p:465-473
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.048
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yi, Fujin & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Thome, Karen, 2013. "An Analysis of the Effects of Government Subsidies and the Renewable Fuels Standard on the Fuel Ethanol Industry: A Structural Econometric Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Lima, Dmitry & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Guerrero, Bridget & Amosson, Stephen H. & Wetzstein, Michael, 2013. "A New Look at the Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy as an Alternative to Electric and Natural Gas-Powered Irrigation," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-12, November.
    4. Xian, Hui & Karali, Berna & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Diesel or compressed natural gas? A real options evaluation of the U.S. natural gas boom on fuel choice for trucking fleets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1342-1348.
    5. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    6. Sesmero, Juan & McCarty, Tanner, 2014. "Cost Effectiveness of Alternative Policies to Induce Investment in Cellulosic Biofuels," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170598, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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