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An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options


  • Lin, Tyrone T.
  • Huang, Shio-Ling


This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by Ansar and Sparks (2009) for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

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  • Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2010. "An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 794-802, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:2:p:794-802

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Co-firing coal with wood pellets for U.S. electricity generation: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    2. Gonzalez, Asa O. & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2012. "A public policy aid for bioenergy investment: Case study of failed plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 465-473.
    3. Qian, Dong & Guo, Ju’e, 2014. "Research on the energy-saving and revenue sharing strategy of ESCOs under the uncertainty of the value of Energy Performance Contracting Projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 710-721.
    4. Giuseppe Travaglini, 2012. "Pollution control: targets and dynamics," Working Papers 1201, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2012.
    5. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2011. "Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 408-420, January.
    6. Wang, Juite & Yang, Chung-Yu, 2012. "Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 823-831.
    7. Saltari, Enrico & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2011. "The effects of environmental policies on the abatement investment decisions of a green firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 666-685, September.
    8. Saltari, Enrico & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2011. "Optimal abatement investment and environmental policies under pollution uncertainty," MPRA Paper 35072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Travaglini, Giuseppe & Saltari, Enrico, 2012. "A model of waste control and abatement capital: Permanent versus temporary environmental policies," MPRA Paper 36522, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Zhang, Limao & Cui, Qingbin, 2015. "Making optimal investment decisions for energy service companies under uncertainty: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 234-243.
    11. Li, Shoude, 2013. "Emission permit banking, pollution abatement and production–inventory control of the firm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 679-685.
    12. repec:spr:joevec:v:27:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-017-0516-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2015. "Nonlinear dynamic pollution under uncertainty and binding targets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 175-183.
    14. Yang, Mian & Yang, Fu-Xia & Chen, Xing-Peng, 2011. "Effects of substituting energy with capital on China's aggregated energy and environmental efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6065-6072, October.
    15. Enrico Saltari & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2013. "Optimal Waste Control with Abatement and Productive Capital Stocks," Working Papers 1301, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2013.


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