An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options
This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by Ansar and Sparks (2009) for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.
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