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Can Real Option Value Explain Why Producers Appear to Store Too Long?

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  • Kim, Hyun Seok
  • Brorsen, B. Wade

Abstract

Previous studies suggest that producers tend to store crops longer than makes economic sense. Since decisions to sell are irreversible, there can be a real option value from waiting to sell grain. This real option value may explain why producers appear to store too long. A seasonal mean reversion model is estimated that allows prices to be a random walk within a season, but mean reverting across crop years. Unless prices are extremely low, it is optimal for producers to sell before the mean reversion begins. Thus, the real option value of waiting cannot explain why producers seem to store at a loss in the latter part of crop years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Hyun Seok & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2008. "Can Real Option Value Explain Why Producers Appear to Store Too Long?," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37602, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37602
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "2007 U.S Corn Production Risks: What Does History Teach Us?," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 37494, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    2. Skaggs, Rhonda K. & Gorman, William D. & Gardner, J. & Crawford, Terry L., 1999. "Surveys of New Mexico Alfalfa Producers and Dairy Hay Users: Will Growth of the State's Dairy Industry be Limited by Alfalfa Availability?," Research Reports 23956, New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business.
    3. Kim B. Anderson & B. Wade Brorsen, 2005. "Marketing Performance of Oklahoma Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1265-1270.
    4. Hopper, Jared A. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Burton, Robert O., Jr., 2004. "Alfalfa Hay Quality and Alternative Pricing Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(03), December.
    5. Lewis A. Hagedorn & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Evelyn V. Colino, 2005. "Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1271-1279.
    6. Bazen, Ernest F. & Roberts, Roland K. & Travis, John & Larson, James A., 2008. "Factors Affecting Hay Supply and Demand in Tennessee," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6889, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Blank, Steven C. & Orloff, Steve B. & Putnam, Daniel H., 2001. "Sequential Stochastic Production Decisions For A Perennial Crop: The Yield/Quality Tradeoff For Alfalfa Hay," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
    8. repec:ags:joaaec:v:36:y:2004:i:3:p:675-690 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmit, Todd M. & Luo, Jianchuan & Conrad, Jon M., 2010. "Estimating the Influence of Ethanol Policy on Plant Investment Decisions: A Real Options Analysis with Two Stochastic Variables," Working Papers 126963, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.

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    Keywords

    real option value; seasonal mean reversion; Agricultural Finance;

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