IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v6y2017icp50-65.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real options and the value of oil and gas firms: An empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sabet, Amir H.
  • Heaney, Richard

Abstract

This paper examines the link between oil (gas) firm share price and crude oil (natural gas) return, volatility and drilling activity. Particular emphasis is placed on testing for real option effects through analysis of the sensitivity of oil (gas) firm share price to oil (gas) price volatility. Using the level of active exploration drilling as a proxy for exercised real options, we find some evidence of a real option effect linked to drilling in gas firms, though there is little evidence of this for oil firms. There is evidence of a strong positive oil (gas) return effect on oil (gas) firm value. Finally, there is also some evidence of wealth destruction associated with exploration drilling compared with development drilling.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2017. "Real options and the value of oil and gas firms: An empirical analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 50-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:6:y:2017:i:c:p:50-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.05.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851315300799
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.05.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galai, Dan & Masulis, Ronald W., 1976. "The option pricing model and the risk factor of stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 53-81.
    2. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    3. Timothy Dunne & Xiaoyi Mu, 2010. "Investment Spikes And Uncertainty In The Petroleum Refining Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 190-213, March.
    4. Ringlund, Guro Bornes & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2008. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 371-396, March.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1235-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Peter C. Reiss, 1989. "Economic and Financial Determinants of Oil and Gas Exploration Activity," NBER Working Papers 3077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    8. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    9. Ryan Kellogg, 2011. "Learning by Drilling: Interfirm Learning and Relationship Persistence in the Texas Oilpatch," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1961-2004.
    10. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    11. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    13. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    15. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    16. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    18. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    19. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    20. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
    21. Koussis, Nicos & Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Multi-stage product development with exploration, value-enhancing, preemptive and innovation options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 174-190.
    22. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    23. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    24. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2016. "An event study analysis of oil and gas firm acreage and reserve acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 215-227.
    25. Haushalter, G. David & Heron, Randall A. & Lie, Erik, 2002. "Price uncertainty and corporate value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 271-286, July.
    26. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    27. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    28. Quigg, Laura, 1993. "Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-640, June.
    29. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    30. Geske, Robert & Johnson, Herb E, 1984. "The American Put Option Valued Analytically," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1511-1524, December.
    31. Gustavo Grullon & Evgeny Lyandres & Alexei Zhdanov, 2012. "Real Options, Volatility, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1499-1537, August.
    32. Faff, Robert W. & Brailsford, Timothy J., 1999. "Oil price risk and the Australian stock market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-87, June.
    33. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    34. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    35. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    36. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    37. Jensen, Michael C, 1988. "Takeovers: Their Causes and Consequences," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Véronique Blum & Charlotte Krychowski, 2023. "Capturing risks in accounting, the case of extractive industries [La prise en compte du risque en comptabilité, le cas des industries extractives]," Post-Print hal-04280973, HAL.
    2. Davison, Matt & Merener, Nicolas, 2023. "Equilibrium and real options in the ethanol industry: Modeling and empirical evidence," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2016. "An event study analysis of oil and gas firm acreage and reserve acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 215-227.
    2. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Le, Anh, 2020. "The importance of managerial ability on crude oil price uncertainty-firm performance relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2019. "Crude oil price uncertainty and corporate investment: New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 54-65.
    6. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    7. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    8. Misund, Bård, 2015. "Reserves Replacement and Oil and Gas Company Shareholder returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/11, University of Stavanger.
    9. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    10. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    11. Distadio, Luiz Fernando & Ferguson, Andrew, 2022. "Mine offtake contracting, strategic alliances and the equity market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    13. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, September.
    14. Ronald A. Ratti & M. Zahid Hasan, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89, pages 67-83, June.
    15. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    16. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
    17. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    18. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9845 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    21. Sunil K. Mohanty & Joseph Onochie & Abdulrahman F. Alshehri, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia: evidence from industry level analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 595-619, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:6:y:2017:i:c:p:50-65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.