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INVESTMENT SPIKES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY -super-

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  • TIMOTHY DUNNE
  • XIAOYI MU

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refineries in the U.S. We construct uncertainty measures from the commodity futures market and use data on actual capacity changes to measure investment episodes. Since capacity changes in U.S. refineries occur infrequently, we empirically model the investment process using hazard models. An increase in uncertainty decreases the probability that a refinery might adjust its capacity. The results are robust to various investment thresholds. Our findings lend support to theories that emphasize the role of irreversibility in investment decisions. Copyright 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. and the Editorial Board of The Journal of Industrial Economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Dunne & Xiaoyi Mu, 2010. "INVESTMENT SPIKES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY -super-," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 190-213, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:58:y:2010:i:1:p:190-213
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    Cited by:

    1. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    2. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2011. "The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 641-659, June.
    3. David Wozabal & Christoph Graf & David Hirschmann, 2016. "The effect of intermittent renewables on the electricity price variance," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 38(3), pages 687-709, July.
    4. Besen, Stanley M. & Israel, Mark A., 2013. "The evolution of Internet interconnection from hierarchy to “Mesh”: Implications for government regulation," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 235-245.
    5. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:560-578 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Uncertainty and the trade-off between scale and flexibility in investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1718-1728.
    7. Song, Xiaoqian & Mu, Xiaoyi, 2013. "The safety regulation of small-scale coal mines in China: Analysing the interests and influences of stakeholders," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 472-481.
    8. repec:eee:jomega:v:72:y:2017:i:c:p:50-58 is not listed on IDEAS

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