Multi-stage product development with exploration, value-enhancing, preemptive and innovation options
We provide a real options framework for the analysis of product development that incorporates research and exploration actions, product attribute value-enhancing actions with uncertain outcome, as well as preemption and innovation options. We derive two-stage analytic formulas and propose a general multi-period solution using a numerical lattice approach. Our analysis reveals that exploration actions are more important when the project is out or at-the-money (near zero NPV) and less important for high project values. In a multi-stage setting, exploration actions are important even for in-the-money projects, when follow-on actions exist that can enhance the expected value of the project. With path-dependency, early actions are more valuable since they enhance the impact or reduce the cost of subsequent actions. Preemptive controls affecting rare event (jump) frequency and innovations that introduce positive jumps are more valuable for firms with higher frequency of competitive threats involving low volatility.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1993.
"Investments of uncertain cost,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
- Câmara, António, 2009. "Two counters of jumps," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 456-463, March.
- Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
- Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
- Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2010. "Public entrants, public equity finance and creative destruction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1077-1088, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1976.
"Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
- Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
- Chung, Y. Peter & Johnson, Herb, 2011. "Extendible options: The general case," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-20, March.
- Nimalendran, M, 1994. "Estimating the Effects of Information Surprises and Trading on Stock Returns Using a Mixed Jump-Diffusion Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 451-73.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. " Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-65, March.
- Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2009. "Why has the investment-cash flow sensitivity declined so sharply? Rising R&D and equity market developments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 971-984, May.
- Agliardi, Elettra & Koussis, Nicos, 2011. "Optimal capital structure and investment options in finite horizon," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 28-36, March.
- Bates, David S, 1991. " The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-44, July.
- Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
- Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1991. "Anticipated competitive entry and early preemptive investment in deferrable projects," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 143-156, May.
- Bernardo, Antonio E. & Chowdhry, Bhagwan, 2002. "Resources, real options, and corporate strategy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 211-234, February.
- Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
- Longstaff, Francis A, 1990. " Pricing Options with Extendible Maturities: Analysis and Applications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 935-57, July.
- Paul Childs & Steven Ott & Timothy Riddiough, 2001. "Valuation and Information Acquisition Policy for Claims Written on Noisy Real Assets," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 30(2), Summer.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:1:p:174-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.