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Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty

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  • Pennings, Enrico
  • Sereno, Luigi

Abstract

This study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic uncertainty is modeled as a standard diffusion process which incorporates both up-and downward shocks. Practical application of this method is emphasized through a case analysis. We show that both uncertainties have a positive impact on the R&D option value. Moreover, from the sensitivity analysis, we find that the sensitivity of the option with respect to economic uncertainty and market introduction cost decreases when technical uncertainty increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Pennings, Enrico & Sereno, Luigi, 2011. "Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 374-385, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:212:y:2011:i:2:p:374-385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
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    6. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2009. "Valuation of R&D Sequential Exchange Options Using Monte Carlo Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 209-236, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rubel, Olivier, 2013. "Stochastic competitive entries and dynamic pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 381-392.
    2. Sara Amoroso & Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello & Antonio Vezzani, 2017. "R&D profitability: the role of risk and Knightian uncertainty," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 331-343, February.
    3. Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA & Mamata PARHI, 2015. "A "Jump" in the Stochasticity of the Solow-Swan Growth Model," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 50, pages 905-917, Juin.
    4. Nunes, Cláudia & Pimentel, Rita, 2017. "Analytical solution for an investment problem under uncertainties with shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1054-1063.
    5. Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Morreale, Azzurra & Enea, Gianluca, 2014. "Open innovation: A real option to restore value to the biopharmaceutical R&D," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 183-193.
    6. repec:eee:respol:v:46:y:2017:i:7:p:1255-1271 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:bla:jpbect:v:19:y:2017:i:1:p:121-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lukas, Elmar & Mölls, Sascha & Welling, Andreas, 2016. "Venture capital, staged financing and optimal funding policies under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 305-313.
    9. Michi Nishihara, 2017. "Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    10. Moreno, Manuel & Serrano, Pedro & Stute, Winfried, 2011. "Statistical properties and economic implications of jump-diffusion processes with shot-noise effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 656-664, November.
    11. Cerqueti Roy & Ventura Marco, 2015. "Patent Valuation under Spatial Point Processes with Delayed and Decreasing Jump Intensity," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 433-456, July.
    12. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Versaevel, Bruno, 2017. "One Lab, Two Firms, Many Possibilities: on R&D outsourcing in the biopharmaceutical industry," MPRA Paper 76903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:eee:ejores:v:261:y:2017:i:3:p:1189-1202 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Suvankar Ghosh & O. Felix Offodile, 2016. "A real options model of phased migration to cellular manufacturing," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 894-906, February.
    15. Rosella Levaggi & Michele Moretto & Paolo Pertile, 2017. "The Dynamics of Pharmaceutical Regulation and R&D Investments," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(1), pages 121-141, February.
    16. Rainer Andergassen & Luigi Sereno, 2012. "Valuation of N-stage Investments Under Jump-Diffusion Processes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 289-313, March.
    17. repec:eee:matsoc:v:87:y:2017:i:c:p:85-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Zacharias, Eleftherios, 2013. "Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 236-249.
    19. Jobjörnsson, Sebastian & Forster, Martin & Pertile, Paolo & Burman, Carl-Fredrik, 2016. "Late-stage pharmaceutical R&D and pricing policies under two-stage regulation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 298-311.

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