IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ufg/qdsems/04-2008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuation of R&D Sequential Exchange Options using Monte Carlo approach

Author

Listed:
  • Flavia Cortelezzi
  • Giovanni Villani

Abstract

This article describes a methodology for evaluating R&D investment projects using Monte Carlomethods. R&D projects generally involves multiple phases with or without overlapping. R&D investments are made often in a phased manner, with the commencement of subsequent phase being dependent on the successful completion of the preceding phase, it is known as sequential investment. Moreover, each stage creates an opportunity (option) for subsequent investment. Therefore, R&D projects can be considered as ‘Compound Options' in which investments present uncertainty both in the gross project value and in costs. It is possible to use exchange options to value the R&D investment opportunities. In this paper, we propose to value the European and American Real Compound Exchange options through Monte Carlo simulation. We also provide a set of numerical experiments to provide evidence for the accuracy of the proposed methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2008. "Valuation of R&D Sequential Exchange Options using Monte Carlo approach," Quaderni DSEMS 04-2008, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    • Handle: RePEc:ufg:qdsems:04-2008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.unifg.it/sites/sd01/files/allegatiparagrafo/29-11-2016/q042008_abstract.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carr, Peter P, 1988. " The Valuation of Sequential Exchange Opportunities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1235-1256, December.
    2. Armada, Manuel Rocha & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Pereira, Paulo Jorge, 2007. "A modified finite-lived American exchange option methodology applied to real options valuation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-438, March.
    3. Geske, Robert & Johnson, Herb E, 1984. "The American Put Option Valued Analytically," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1511-1524, December.
    4. Barraquand, Jérôme & Martineau, Didier, 1995. "Numerical Valuation of High Dimensional Multivariate American Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 383-405, September.
    5. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    6. Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Pricing American-style securities using simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1323-1352, June.
    7. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cassimon, Danny & Engelen, Peter-Jan & Yordanov, Vilimir, 2011. "Compound Real Option Valuation with Phase-Specific Volatility: a Multi-phase Mobile Payments Case Study," MPRA Paper 46053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pennings, Enrico & Sereno, Luigi, 2011. "Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 374-385, July.
    3. Michele Bufalo & Antonio Di Bari & Giovanni Villani, 2022. "Multi-stage real option evaluation with double barrier under stochastic volatility and interest rate," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 247-266, June.
    4. Roger Adkins & Dean Paxson, 2017. "Sequential investments with stage-specific risks and drifts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1150-1175, September.
    5. Giovanni Villani, 2009. "A Strategic R&D Investment with Flexible Development Time in Real Option Game Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2728, CESifo.
    6. Giovanni Villani, 2014. "Valuation of R&D Investment Opportunities with the Threat of Competitors Entry in Real Option Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 331-355, March.
    7. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2012. "Strategic R&D Investment Under Information Revelation," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 20-40.
    8. Giovanni Villani, 2022. "A Neural Network Approach to Value R&D Compound American Exchange Option," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 305-324, June.
    9. Jeon, Chanwoong & Lee, Jeongjin & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model: Photovoltaic technology case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-43.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Giovanni Villani, 2022. "A Neural Network Approach to Value R&D Compound American Exchange Option," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 305-324, June.
    3. Giovanni Villani, 2004. "Valutazione di opzioni exchange attraverso la simulazione Monte Carlo e stima delle sensitivita'," Quaderni DSEMS 10-2004, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    4. Giovanni Villani, 2008. "R&D Cooperation in Real Option Game Analysis," Quaderni DSEMS 19-2008, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    5. Giovanni Villani, 2014. "Valuation of R&D Investment Opportunities with the Threat of Competitors Entry in Real Option Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 331-355, March.
    6. Giovanni Villani, 2009. "A Strategic R&D Investment with Flexible Development Time in Real Option Game Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2728, CESifo.
    7. Giovanni Villani, 2008. "An R&D Investment Game under Uncertainty in Real Option Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 199-219, September.
    8. Giovanni Villani, 2004. "Valutazione di progetti di investimento e-commerce attraverso le opzioni reali," Quaderni DSEMS 06-2004, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    9. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    10. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2012. "Strategic R&D Investment Under Information Revelation," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 20-40.
    11. Armada, Manuel Rocha & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Pereira, Paulo Jorge, 2007. "A modified finite-lived American exchange option methodology applied to real options valuation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-438, March.
    12. Chi H. Truong, 2014. "A Two Factor Model for Water Prices and Its Implications for Evaluating Real Options and Other Water Price Derivatives," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(1), pages 23-45, March.
    13. Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2001. "The option on n assets with exchange rate and exercise price risk," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    15. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Faure-Grimaud, Antoine, 2002. "Excessive continuation and dynamic agency costs of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1623-1644, October.
    16. Guanghua Lian & Robert J. Elliott & Petko Kalev & Zhaojun Yang, 2022. "Approximate pricing of American exchange options with jumps," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 983-1001, June.
    17. Garcia, Diego, 2003. "Convergence and Biases of Monte Carlo estimates of American option prices using a parametric exercise rule," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1855-1879, August.
    18. Didier Cossin & Benoît Leleux & Entela Saliasi, 2002. "Understanding the Economic Value of Legal Covenants in Investment Contracts: A Real-Options Approach to Venture Equity Contracts," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series rp63, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Giovanni Villani & Marta Biancardi, 2022. "Competition and strategic alliance in R&D investments: a real option game approach with multiple experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 63-86, January.
    20. Chang, Shuhua & Li, Yue & Gao, Fanglu, 2016. "The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 182-189.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pseudo Compound American Exchange option; R&D; Monte Carlo Methods.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ufg:qdsems:04-2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luca Grilli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emsfoit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.