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Compound Real Option Valuation with Phase-Specific Volatility: a Multi-phase Mobile Payments Case Study

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  • Cassimon, Danny
  • Engelen, Peter-Jan
  • Yordanov, Vilimir

Abstract

Multi-staged R&D projects are copy-book cases of compound real options. Traditional compound option models assume a constant volatility over the lifetime of the project. Building on the n-fold compound option model of Cassimon et al. (2004), we extend this model to allow for phase-specific volatility estimates, while preserving the closed-form solution of the model. We illustrate the extended model with a case study of a real option valuation of a multi-stage software application project by a large mobile phone operator and we show how project managers can estimate phase-specific volatilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Cassimon, Danny & Engelen, Peter-Jan & Yordanov, Vilimir, 2011. "Compound Real Option Valuation with Phase-Specific Volatility: a Multi-phase Mobile Payments Case Study," MPRA Paper 46053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46053
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2009. "Valuation of R&D Sequential Exchange Options Using Monte Carlo Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 209-236, April.
    6. Michel Benaroch & Robert J. Kauffman, 1999. "A Case for Using Real Options Pricing Analysis to Evaluate Information Technology Project Investments," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 70-86, March.
    7. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
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    9. Pennings, Enrico & Lint, Onno, 1997. "The option value of advanced R & D," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 83-94, November.
    10. Torsten J. Gerpott & Klaus Kornmeier, 2009. "Determinants of customer acceptance of mobile payment systems," International Journal of Electronic Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30.
    11. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P. J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2004. "The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 41-51, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cassimon, Danny & Engelen, Peter-Jan & Reyntjens, Filip, 2013. "Rwanda’s involvement in Eastern DRC: A criminal real options approach," MPRA Paper 46993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marta Biancardi & Giovanni Villani, 2017. "Robust Monte Carlo Method for R&D Real Options Valuation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 481-498, March.
    3. Danny Cassimon & Peter-Jan Engelen & Luc Liedekerke, 2016. "When do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? A Real Option Framework," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 15-29, August.
    4. Antonio Di Bari & Giovanni Villani, 2023. "An Options Game approach to valuate broadband projects in a smart city context," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1587-1601, April.
    5. Chen, Weidong & Zeng, Yu & Xu, Chongqing, 2019. "Energy storage subsidy estimation for microgrid: A real option game-theoretic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 373-382.
    6. Lukas Auer, 2013. "SOA investment decision-making using real options analysis," International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 21-40.
    7. Engelen, Peter-Jan & Kool, Clemens & Li, Ye, 2016. "A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 33-56.
    8. Gorupec Natalia & Tiberius Victor & Brehmer Nataliia & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    9. Roger Adkins & Dean Paxson, 2017. "Sequential investments with stage-specific risks and drifts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1150-1175, September.
    10. David Mueller, 2016. "The right to choose: political decisions and environmental investments," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 219-236.
    11. Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Morreale, Azzurra & Enea, Gianluca, 2014. "Open innovation: A real option to restore value to the biopharmaceutical R&D," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 183-193.
    12. Suvankar Ghosh & O. Felix Offodile, 2016. "A real options model of phased migration to cellular manufacturing," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 894-906, February.
    13. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2012. "Strategic R&D Investment Under Information Revelation," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 20-40.
    14. Rainer Andergassen & Luigi Sereno, 2012. "Valuation of N-stage Investments Under Jump-Diffusion Processes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 289-313, March.
    15. Jeon, Chanwoong & Lee, Jeongjin & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model: Photovoltaic technology case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-43.
    16. Peter‐Jan Engelen & Michele Meoli & Andrea Signori & Silvio Vismara, 2020. "The effects of stricter regulation on the going public decision of small and knowledge‐intensive firms," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1-2), pages 188-217, January.
    17. Chuan-Chuan Ko & Tyrone T. Lin & Fu-Min Zeng & Chien-Yu Liu, 2018. "Optimum Technology Product Life Cycle Technology Innovation Investment-Using Compound Binomial Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    R&D; real options; compound option model; phase-specific volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • M15 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - IT Management
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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