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Incorporating technical risk in compound real option models to value a pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity

Author

Listed:
  • Cassimon, D.
  • De Backer, M.
  • Engelen, P.J.
  • Van Wouwe, M.
  • Yordanov, V.

Abstract

The valuation of multi-staged pharmaceutical R&D can be interpreted as a chain of real options. In valuing these compound option models, a crucial problem is how to deal with the different types of risk. Previous models, such as Cassimon et al. (2004), offer a closed-form solution for the valuation of a new drug development using a generalized n-fold compound option model, but implicitly bundle both commercial and technical risk in one risk measure. We extend this model by explicitly incorporating technical risk, while still preserving the closed-form solution of the model. As such, this extended model is better suited to handle real-life valuation cases in the pharmaceutical industry. We document the theoretical model with a real-life project of a major pharmaceutical multinational.

Suggested Citation

  • Cassimon, D. & De Backer, M. & Engelen, P.J. & Van Wouwe, M. & Yordanov, V., 2011. "Incorporating technical risk in compound real option models to value a pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1200-1216.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:40:y:2011:i:9:p:1200-1216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2011.05.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    2. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Moon, Mark, 2001. "Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 7-25, November.
    3. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P. J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2004. "The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 41-51, January.
    4. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    5. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Carlos Zozaya-Gorostiza, 2003. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Information Technology: Acquisition and Development Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 57-70, January.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    7. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cassimon, Danny & Engelen, Peter-Jan & Reyntjens, Filip, 2013. "Rwanda’s involvement in Eastern DRC: A criminal real options approach," MPRA Paper 46993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mendes-da-Silva, Wesley & Saito, Richard, 2014. "Listagem em bolsa induz sofisticação do orçamento de capital," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 54(5), September.
    3. Danny Cassimon & Peter-Jan Engelen & Luc Liedekerke, 2016. "When do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? A Real Option Framework," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 15-29, August.
    4. Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Morreale, Azzurra & Enea, Gianluca, 2014. "Open innovation: A real option to restore value to the biopharmaceutical R&D," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 183-193.
    5. Dushnitsky, Gary & Klueter, Thomas, 2017. "Which industries are served by online marketplaces for technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 651-666.
    6. Michi Nishihara, 2017. "Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    7. Engelen, Peter-Jan & Kool, Clemens & Li, Ye, 2016. "A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 33-56.
    8. Peter-Jan Engelen & Marc van Essen, 2013. "Effects of firm-level corporate governance and country-level economic governance institutions on R&D curtailment during crisis times," Chapters,in: Governance, Regulation and Innovation, chapter 3, pages 58-85 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Lo Nigro, Giovanna, 2016. "The effect of early or late R&D inbound alliance on innovation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1791-1795.
    10. repec:eee:appene:v:195:y:2017:i:c:p:487-502 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:ejores:v:261:y:2017:i:3:p:1189-1202 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Michi Nishihara, 2014. "Valuation of sequential R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-13, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    13. repec:eee:matsoc:v:87:y:2017:i:c:p:85-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gambardella, Alfonso & Giarratana, Marco S., 2013. "General technological capabilities, product market fragmentation, and markets for technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 315-325.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pharmaceutical R&D; Real options; Compound option model; Technical risk; Case study;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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