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Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

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  • Pringles, Rolando
  • Olsina, Fernando
  • Garcés, Francisco

Abstract

In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system.

Suggested Citation

  • Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2014. "Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 272-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:272-280
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Lumbreras & Jesús David Gómez & Erik Francisco Alvarez & Sebastien Huclin, 2022. "The Human Factor in Transmission Network Expansion Planning: The Grid That a Sustainable Energy System Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Kazuya Ito & Makoto Tanaka & Ryuta Takashima, 2024. "Strategic investment in power generation and transmission under a feed-in premium scheme: a game theoretic real options analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 343(1), pages 349-372, December.
    3. Samper, M. & Coria, G. & Facchini, M., 2021. "Grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation considering tariff policies in Argentina," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Or, Bartu & Bilgin, Gozde & Akcay, Emre Caner & Dikmen, Irem & Birgonul, M. Talat, 2024. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic investments: A case from Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Lotti, Giovanni, 2020. "A simple-to-implement real options method for the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.

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