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Testing for Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Markov Games

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  • Otsu, Taisuke
  • Pesendorfer, Martin
  • Takahashi, Yuya

Abstract

This paper proposes several statistical tests for finite state Markov games to examine the null hypothesis that the data are generated from a single equilibrium. We formulate tests of (i) the conditional choice probabilities, (ii) the steady-state distribution of states and (iii) the conditional distribution of states conditional on an initial state. In a Monte Carlo study we find that the chi-squared test of the steady-state distribution performs well and has high power even with a small number of markets and time periods. We apply the chi-squared test to the empirical application of Ryan (2012) that analyzes dynamics of the U.S. Portland Cement industry and test if his assumption of single equilibrium is supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Otsu, Taisuke & Pesendorfer, Martin & Takahashi, Yuya, 2013. "Testing for Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Markov Games," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 423, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:trf:wpaper:423
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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Velasco Rivera, Carlos, 2014. "Preferences or private assessments on a monetary policy committee?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 16-32.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Markov Game; Multiplicity of Equilibria; Testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions

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