IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables

  • Hu, Yingyao
  • Shum, Matthew

We consider the identification of a Markov process {Wt,Xt∗} when only {Wt} is observed. In structural dynamic models, Wt includes the choice variables and observed state variables of an optimizing agent, while Xt∗ denotes time-varying serially correlated unobserved state variables (or agent-specific unobserved heterogeneity). In the non-stationary case, we show that the Markov law of motion fWt,Xt∗∣Wt−1,Xt−1∗ is identified from five periods of data Wt+1,Wt,Wt−1,Wt−2,Wt−3. In the stationary case, only four observations Wt+1,Wt,Wt−1,Wt−2 are required. Identification of fWt,Xt∗∣Wt−1,Xt−1∗ is a crucial input in methodologies for estimating Markovian dynamic models based on the “conditional-choice-probability (CCP)” approach pioneered by Hotz and Miller.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 171 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 32-44

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:171:y:2012:i:1:p:32-44
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
  2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 1999. "Swapping the Nested Fixed-Point Algorithm: a Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 332, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, 06.
  5. Andriy Norets, 2009. "Inference in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Serially orrelated Unobserved State Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1665-1682, 09.
  6. Susanne M. Schennach, 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonlinear Errors-in-Variables Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 602, Econometric Society.
  7. Pesendorfer, Martin & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 3965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Gregory S. Crawford & Matthew Shum, 2005. "Uncertainty and Learning in Pharmaceutical Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1137-1173, 07.
  9. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-97, November.
  10. Rosa L. Matzkin, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Nonadditive Random Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1339-1375, 09.
  11. Stephen Ryan, 2005. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Working Papers 0510, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  12. Hotz, V Joseph & Robert A. Miller & Seth Sanders & Jeffrey Smith, 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 265-89, April.
  13. Hotz, V.J. & Miller, R.A., 1991. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," GSIA Working Papers 1992-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  14. Flavio Cunha & James Heckman & Susanne Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," NBER Working Papers 15664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ackerberg, Daniel & Lanier Benkard, C. & Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 2007. "Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 63 Elsevier.
  16. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
  17. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2005. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," NBER Working Papers 11307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market entry costs, producer heterogeneity and export dynamics," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 03-10, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
  19. Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
  20. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
  21. Arellano, Manuel & Honore, Bo, 2001. "Panel data models: some recent developments," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 53, pages 3229-3296 Elsevier.
  22. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," NBER Working Papers 10450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341, 04.
  24. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  25. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
  26. Daniel A. Ackerberg, 2003. "Advertising, learning, and consumer choice in experience good markets: an empirical examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1007-1040, 08.
  27. Bouissou, Michel B & Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Vuong, Quang H, 1986. "Tests of Noncausality under Markov Assumptions for Qualitative Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 395-414, March.
  28. Ariel Pakes, 1984. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
  30. Ariel Pakes, 2000. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in I.O," NBER Working Papers 8024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Susumu Imai & Neelam Jain & Andrew Ching, 2006. "Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Working Papers 1118, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  32. Erdem, Tulin & Imai, Susumu & Keane, Michael, 2003. "Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics Under Price Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 52516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2009. "Nonparametric Identification of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 135-175, 01.
  34. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2004. "Sequential Estimation Of Dynamic Discrete Games," Working Papers wp2004_0413, CEMFI.
  35. Richard Blundell & Xiaohong Chen & Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Semi-Nonparametric IV Estimation of Shape-Invariant Engel Curves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1613-1669, November.
  36. Yingyao Hu & Susanne M. Schennach, 2008. "Instrumental Variable Treatment of Nonclassical Measurement Error Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(1), pages 195-216, 01.
  37. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
  38. Li, Tong, 2002. "Robust and consistent estimation of nonlinear errors-in-variables models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 1-26, September.
  39. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
  40. Shiu, Ji-Liang & Hu, Yingyao, 2013. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear dynamic panel data models with unobserved covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 116-131.
  41. Miller, Robert A, 1984. "Job Matching and Occupational Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1086-120, December.
  42. Susanne M. Schennach, 2004. "Estimation of Nonlinear Models with Measurement Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 33-75, 01.
  43. Allan Collard-Wexler, 2006. "Demand Fluctuations and Plant Turnover in the Ready-Mix Concrete Industry," Working Papers 06-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:171:y:2012:i:1:p:32-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.