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Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis

Author

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  • Richardson, James W.
  • Lemmer, Wessel J.
  • Outlaw, Joe L.

Abstract

Contrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Richardson, James W. & Lemmer, Wessel J. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 10(02).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ifaamr:8192
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Brian Hardaker & James W. Richardson & Gudbrand Lien & Keith D. Schumann, 2004. "Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(2), pages 253-270, June.
    2. Richardson, James W. & Mapp, Harry P., 1976. "Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 19-24, December.
    3. Richardson, James W. & Klose, Steven L. & Gray, Allan W., 2000. "An Applied Procedure For Estimating And Simulating Multivariate Empirical (Mve) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment And Policy Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(02), August.
    4. Klose, Steven L. & Anderson, David P. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Herbst, Brian K. & Richardson, James W., 2003. "The Feasibility Of Ethanol Production In Texas," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35181, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. repec:ags:joaaec:v:32:y:2000:i:2:p:299-315 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Richardson, James W. & Mapp, Harry P., 1976. "Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 19-24, December.
    7. Tiffany, Douglas G. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2003. "Factors Associated With Success Of Fuel Ethanol Producers," Staff Papers 14155, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Amigun, Bamikole & Petrie, Daniel & Görgens, Johann, 2011. "Economic risk assessment of advanced process technologies for bioethanol production in South Africa: Monte Carlo analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3178-3186.
    2. Robus, Charles L.L. & Gottumukkala, Lalitha Devi & van Rensburg, Eugéne & Görgens, Johann F., 2016. "Feasible process development and techno-economic evaluation of paper sludge to bioethanol conversion: South African paper mills scenario," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 333-345.
    3. Kim, Man-Keun & Curtis, Kynda R. & Yeager, Irvin, 2014. "An Assessment of Market Strategies for Small-Scale Produce Growers," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 17(3).
    4. Zapata, Samuel D. & Ribera, Luis A. & Palma, Marco A., 2017. "Effect Of Production Parameters On The Economic Feasibility Of A Biofuel Enterprise," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 347-362, August.
    5. Dlamini, Thula S. & Fraser, Gavin C.G., 2010. "Economics of Meat Production from the Springbuck in the Eastern Cape Karoo," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96181, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
    6. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2014. "Risks in Potato Production: Fertilizer, Water, and Producers’ Decision Making," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162536, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Vorotnikova, Ekaterina & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2014. "Evaluation of the profitability of a new precision fungicide application system for strawberry production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 77-88.
    8. Morris, Brittany D. & Richardson, James W. & Frosch, Brian J. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Rooney, William L., 2009. "Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sweet Sorghum Juice in Texas," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46852, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Yi, Fujin & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Thome, Karen, 2013. "An Analysis of the Effects of Government Subsidies and the Renewable Fuels Standard on the Fuel Ethanol Industry: A Structural Econometric Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Asci, Serhat & VanSickle, John J. & Cantliffe, Daniel J., 2014. "Risk in Investment Decision Making and Greenhouse Tomato Production Expansion in Florida," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 17(4).

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