Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: The case of bioenergy sector
We analyse the decision of an agent to invest in industrial activities characterized by two forms of uncertainty: market size uncertainty and price uncertainty. We use bioenergy industries for an application of the model. Indeed, the sector is confronted to both, an uncertainty in relation to the arrival of an activity relying on the implementation of emerging renewable energy technology (second generation biofuel process) and an uncertainty linked to the variability of the price of biomass sold. We find the neglecting market size-related uncertainty would lead to an underestimation of the role of price uncertainty on the investment. Likewise, adding a price uncertainty may increase the investment when under both uncertainties the producer over values the selling prices. We demonstrate that the investment under price uncertainty is larger than the one under market size uncertainty when the producer's prior belief on the realization of the situation with a high price is higher than certain threshold. In addition, the ambiguity aversion on the price distribution also leads the producer to under-invest. We then discuss some political instruments that could ease the ability of the producer to invest in context of uncertainty and ambiguity.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 01 30 81 53 30
Fax: 01 30 81 53 68
Web page: http://www4.versailles-grignon.inra.fr/economie_publique_eng
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002.
"A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity,"
Economics Series Working Papers
113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Dangl, Thomas, 1999. "Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 415-428, September.
- Zengjing Chen & Larry G. Epstein, 2000.
"Ambiguity, risk and asset returns in continuous time,"
RCER Working Papers
474, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
- Kahn, Barbara E & Sarin, Rakesh K, 1988. " Modeling Ambiguity in Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 265-72, September.
- Engle Warnick James C. & Escobal Javier & Laszlo Sonia C., 2011. "Ambiguity Aversion and Portfolio Choice in Small-Scale Peruvian Farming," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-56, November.
- Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. " Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1980.
"The optimal production of an exhaustible resource when price is exogenous and stochastic,"
1162-80., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1981. " The Optimal Production of an Exhaustible Resource When Price is Exogenous and Stochastic," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(2), pages 277-88.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:apu:wpaper:2010/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RÃ©gis Grateau)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.