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On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Brice Corgnet

    (EM - EMLyon Business School, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Roberto Hernán-Gonzalez

    (UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])

  • Praveen Kujal

    (Middlesex University Business School - Middlesex University Business School)

Abstract

We study the effect of ambiguity on the formation of bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets à la Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988) by allowing for ambiguity in the fundamental value of the asset. Although bubbles form in both the ambiguous and the risky environments we find that asset prices tend to be lower when the fundamental value is ambiguous than when it is risky. Bubbles do not crash in the ambiguous case whereas they do so in the risky one. These findings, regarding depressed prices and the absence of crashes in the presence of ambiguity, are in line with recent theoretical work stressing the crucial role of ambiguity to account for surprisingly low equity prices (high returns) as well as herding in asset markets.
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  • Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán-Gonzalez & Praveen Kujal, 2020. "On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles," Post-Print halshs-03031385, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03031385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103754
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03031385
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    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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