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A test of mechanical ambiguity

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  • Oechssler, Jörg
  • Roomets, Alex

Abstract

We implement an experiment to elicit subjects’ ambiguity attitudes in the spirit of Ellsberg's three-color urn. The procedure includes three design elements that (together) have not been featured in similar experiments: strict ambiguity preferences, a single decision, and a mechanical randomization device with an unknown distribution (to both subjects and experimenters). We use this device in order to eliminate possible “strategic” ambiguity related to subjects’ beliefs about the experimenters’ motivations. In addition, we survey 40 experimental studies on Ellsberg's two- and three-color problems, and find that, on average, slightly more than half of subjects are classified as ambiguity averse. Our results, with our new design, fall on the low end of the range of results in the surveyed studies, and are comparable to a control test where “strategic” ambiguity was induced.

Suggested Citation

  • Oechssler, Jörg & Roomets, Alex, 2015. "A test of mechanical ambiguity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 153-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:119:y:2015:i:c:p:153-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.08.004
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    2. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Han Bleichrodt & Emmanuel Kemel & Olivier l’Haridon, 2021. "Measuring Beliefs Under Ambiguity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 599-612, March.
    3. Oechssler, Jörg & Rau, Hannes & Roomets, Alex, 2019. "Hedging, ambiguity, and the reversal of order axiom," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 380-387.
    4. Corgnet, Brice & Hernán-González, Roberto & Kujal, Praveen, 2020. "On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Robin Cubitt & Gijs Kuilen & Sujoy Mukerji, 2018. "The strength of sensitivity to ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 275-302, October.
    6. Christoph Kuzmics & Brian W. Rogers & Xiannong Zhang, 2023. "Randomization advice and ambiguity aversion," Graz Economics Papers 2023-01, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    7. Dmitri Vinogradov & Yousef Makhlouf, 2017. "Signaling Probabilities in Ambiguity: on the impact of vague news," Working Papers 2017_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Christoph Kuzmics & Brian W. Rogers & Xiannong Zhang, 2019. "Is Ellsberg behavior evidence of ambiguity aversion?," Graz Economics Papers 2019-07, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    9. Masaki Aoyagi & Takehito Masuda & Naoko Nishimura, 2021. "Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication," ISER Discussion Paper 1117, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Christoph Kuzmics & Brian W. Rogers & Xiannong Zhang, 2022. "An Ellsberg paradox for ambiguity aversion," Graz Economics Papers 2022-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    11. Milos Borozan & Loreta Cannito & Barbara Luppi, 2022. "A tale of two ambiguities: A conceptual overview of findings from economics and psychology," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 6(S1), pages 11-21, July.
    12. Camille Cornand & Maria Alejandra Erazo Diaz & Béatrice Rey & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2023. "On the robustness of higher order attitudes to ambiguity framing," Working Papers 2318, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    13. Dmitri Vinogradov & Yousef Makhlouf, 2021. "Signaling probabilities in ambiguity: who reacts to vague news?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 371-404, May.
    14. Farjam, Mike, 2019. "On whom would I want to depend; humans or computers?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 219-228.
    15. Igor Kopylov, 2016. "Subjective probability, confidence, and Bayesian updating," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(4), pages 635-658, October.
    16. Crockett, Erin & Crockett, Sean, 2019. "Endowments and risky choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 344-354.
    17. Eichberger, Jürgen & Pirner, Hans Jürgen, 2018. "Decision theory with a state of mind represented by an element of a Hilbert space: The Ellsberg paradox," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 131-141.
    18. Takashi Hayashi & Ryoko Wada, 2022. "Comparative risk and ambiguity aversion: an experimental approach," KIER Working Papers 1079, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; Uncertainty; Experiment; Ellsberg;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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