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Shunning Uncertainty: The Neglect of Learning Opportunities

  • Trautmann, Stefan T.

    (Tilburg University)

  • Zeckhauser, Richard J.

    (Harvard University)

Financial, managerial, and medical decisions often involve alternatives whose possible outcomes have uncertain probabilities. In contrast to alternatives whose probabilities are known, these uncertain alternatives offer the benefits of learning. In repeat-choice situations, such learning brings value. If probabilities appear favorable (unfavorable), a choice can be repeated (avoided). In a series of experiments involving bets on the colors of poker chips drawn from bags, decision makers often prove to be blind to the learning opportunities offered by uncertain probabilities. Such decision makers violate rational decision making and forgo significant expected payoffs when they shun uncertain alternatives in favor of risky ones. Worse, when information is revealed, many make choices contrary to learning. A range of factors explain these violations. The results indicate that priming with optimal strategies offers little improvement.

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp11-044.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-044
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