Career concerns and ambiguity aversion
Why do people have ambiguity aversion, preferring, a gamble with a 50% chance of success to one whose expected probability of success is 50% but where that 50% is an unbiased estimate? The answer modelled here, in the spirit of the career concerns literature, is learning: a risk-averse person does not wish observers to learn whether he is good or bad at estimating probabilities. He therefore prefers a gamble with objective probabilities.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Yoram Halevy & Vincent Feltkamp, 2005.
"A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion,"
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- Yoram Halevy & Vincent Feltkamp, "undated". "A Bayesian Approach to Uncentainty Aversion," CARESS Working Papres 99-03, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Vincent Feltkamp & Yoram Halevy, 2000. "A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1125, Econometric Society.
- Yoram Halevy & Vincent Feltkamp, "undated". "A Bayesian Approach to Uncentainty Aversion," Penn CARESS Working Papers f17f3e2c6ad93e4b53fd58fc9, Penn Economics Department.
- Vincent Feltkamp & Yoram Halevy, 1999. "- A Bayesian Approach To Uncertainty Aversion," Working Papers. Serie AD 1999-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Feltkamp, Vincent & Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion," Microeconomics.ca working papers halevy-04-02-13-07-48-37, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2014.
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- Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David Schmeidler, 1989.
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- Stephen Morris, 1997. "Risk, uncertainty and hidden information," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 235-269, May.
- Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
- Milbourn, Todd T & Shockley, Richard L & Thakor, Anjan V, 2001. "Managerial Career Concerns and Investments in Information," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(2), pages 334-351, Summer.
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