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Information and ambiguity: herd and contrarian behaviour in financial markets

Author

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  • J. Ford
  • D. Kelsey
  • W. Pang

Abstract

The paper studies the impact of informational ambiguity on behalf of informed traders on history-dependent price behaviour in a model of sequential trading in financial markets. Following Chateauneuf et al. (J Econ Theory 137:538–567, 2008 ), we use neo-additive capacities to model ambiguity. Such ambiguity and attitudes to it can engender herd and contrarian behaviour, and also cause the market to break down. The latter, herd and contrarian behaviour, can be reduced by the existence of a bid-ask spread. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ford & D. Kelsey & W. Pang, 2013. "Information and ambiguity: herd and contrarian behaviour in financial markets," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:75:y:2013:i:1:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-012-9334-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Corgnet, Brice & Hernán-González, Roberto & Kujal, Praveen, 2020. "On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Lien, Donald & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey), 2017. "Production and hedging with optimism and pessimism under ambiguity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 122-135.
    3. Craig Webb, 2015. "Piecewise additivity for non-expected utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(2), pages 371-392, October.
    4. Tarik Driouchi & Lenos Trigeorgis & Raymond H. Y. So, 2018. "Option implied ambiguity and its information content: Evidence from the subprime crisis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 463-491, March.
    5. Boortz, Christopher, 2016. "Irrational exuberance and herding in financial markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-016 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aliyev, Nihad & He, Xue-Zhong, 2023. "Ambiguous price formation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    8. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "Precise versus imprecise datasets: revisiting ambiguity attitudes in the Ellsberg paradox," THEMA Working Papers 2018-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    9. Emy Lécuyer & Jean-Philippe Lefort, 2021. "Put–call parity and generalized neo-additive pricing rules," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 521-542, May.
    10. Weihong Huang & Caiyan Yang & Ke Liu & Rui Min, 2023. "Information Acquisition Ability and Farmers’ Herd Behavior in Rice–Crayfish Coculture System Adoption," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, September.
    11. Nihad Aliyev & Xue-Zhong He, 2017. "Ambiguous Market Making," Research Paper Series 383, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Carfí, David & Musolino, Francesco, 2014. "Speculative and hedging interaction model in oil and U.S. dollar markets with financial transaction taxes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 306-319.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Choquet expected utility; Generalised Bayesian update; Optimism; Herding; Contrarian behaviour; D81; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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