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Updating Choquet beliefs

  • Eichberger, Jurgen
  • Grant, Simon
  • Kelsey, David

We apply Pires’s coherence property between unconditional and conditional preferences that admit a CEU representation. In conjunction with consequentialism (only those outcomes on states which are still possible can matter for conditional preference) this implies that the conditional preference may be obtained from the unconditional preference by taking the Full Bayesian Update of the capacity. Attitudes towards sequential versus simultaneous resolution of uncertainty for a simple bet are analyzed. We show that for a class of recursive CEU preferences which exhibit both optimism and pessimism, a 'good-news' signal is preferred to no signal which is preferred to a 'bad-news' signal.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Mathematical Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
Issue (Month): 7-8 (September)
Pages: 888-899

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Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:43:y:2007:i:7-8:p:888-899
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  1. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  3. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2000. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Financial Markets," Economics Series Working Papers 46, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  8. Ehud Lehrer, 2004. "Updating Non-Additive Probabilities -- A Geometric Approach," Game Theory and Information 0405010, EconWPA.
  9. Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon & Kelsey, David, 2005. "CEU preferences and dynamic consistency," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 143-151, March.
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  11. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
  12. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001. "Recursive Multiple-Priors," RCER Working Papers 485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
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  16. André Lapied & Robert Kast, 2009. "Updating Choquet valuation and discounting information arrivals," Working Papers halshs-00410532, HAL.
  17. Wakker, Peter P, 2001. "Testing and Characterizing Properties of Nonadditive Measures through Violations of the Sure-Thing Principle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 1039-59, July.
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  19. Costis Skiadas, 1997. "Conditioning and Aggregation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 347-368, March.
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