A Model Of Entry-Exit Decisions And Capacity Choice Under Demand Uncertainty
Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than the net present value (NPV) rule indicates. The inactive firm is more reluctant to enter the market when it takes into account demand uncertainty because it preserves the opportunity of making a better investment later. The active firm is more reluctant to abandon the investment because there is an option value of keeping the operation alive. There is a greater distance between the entry and exit thresholds under the option-value approach than under the NPV rule due to demand uncertainty. The results have implications for agribusiness decision-making to understand and respond to uncertainty.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu, 2002. "Variable-Rate Nitrogen Application Under Uncertainty: Implications For Profitability And Nitrogen Use," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
- Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu, 2002.
"Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences And Adoption Of Site-Specific Technologies,"
2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA
19858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Murat Isik & Madhu Khanna, 2003. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 305-317.
- Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987.
"Time to build, option value, and investment decisions,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
- Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986.
"Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm,"
1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998.
"Moving From Uniform To Variable Fertilizer Rates On Iowa Corn: Effects On Rates And Returns,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December.
- Bruce A. Babcock & Gregory R. Pautsch, 1997. "Moving from Uniform to Variable Fertilizer Rates on Iowa Corn: Effects on Rates and Returns," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 97-wp182, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998. "Moving from Uniform to Variable Fertilizer Rates on Iowa Corn: Effects on Rates and Returns," Staff General Research Papers 1121, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000.
"Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 24(1), December.
- Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
- McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
- Gary Kachanoski, 1999. "Economic Feasibility of Variable-Rate Technology for Nitrogen on Corn," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 914-927.
- Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2001. "Sequential Investment In Site-Specific Crop Management Under Output Price Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989.
"Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.