IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v126y2021ics0165188920301810.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Flexibility premium of emissions permits

Author

Listed:
  • Taschini, Luca

Abstract

Investments in abatement technology are often characterised by irreversibility and significant implementation lags, whereas emissions permits can be traded at any time. As such, abatement and emissions permit trading systems are hardly perfect substitutes. We formally study the flexibility of emissions permits and propose a unified framework to rationalise the impact of both investment/divestment lags and irreversibility in relation to the price of emissions permits. Using option pricing concepts, we reformulate the technology adoption problem in terms of the technology’s characteristics (irreversibility and implementation lags) and offer a conceptual quantification of the flexibility premium of emissions permits.

Suggested Citation

  • Taschini, Luca, 2021. "Flexibility premium of emissions permits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:126:y:2021:i:c:s0165188920301810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2020.104013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188920301810
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.104013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Zhao, Jinhua, 2003. "Irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties: tradable emission permits and emissions charges," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2765-2789, December.
    3. Hitzemann, Steffen & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2018. "Equilibrium Price Dynamics of Emission Permits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    4. Montgomery, W. David, 1972. "Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 395-418, December.
    5. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    6. Suzi Kerr & Richard G. Newell, 2003. "Policy‐Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 317-343, September.
    7. Raphael Calel, 2020. "Adopt or Innovate: Understanding Technological Responses to Cap-and-Trade," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 170-201, August.
    8. Lintunen, Jussi & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2018. "Business cycles and emission trading with banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 397-417.
    9. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    10. Pacheco-de-Almeida, Goncalo & Zemsky, Peter, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 166-182, Spring.
    11. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    12. Steve Cicala, 2015. "When Does Regulation Distort Costs? Lessons from Fuel Procurement in US Electricity Generation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 411-444, January.
    13. Stranlund, John K. & Murphy, James J. & Spraggon, John M., 2011. "An experimental analysis of compliance in dynamic emissions markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 414-429.
    14. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    15. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
    16. Oh, Hyunseung & Yoon, Chamna, 2020. "Time to build and the real-options channel of residential investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 255-269.
    17. Richard Schmalensee & Paul L. Joskow & A. Denny Ellerman & Juan Pablo Montero & Elizabeth M. Bailey, 1998. "An Interim Evaluation of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 53-68, Summer.
    18. Paciorek, Andrew, 2013. "Supply constraints and housing market dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 11-26.
    19. Chao, Hung-Po & Wilson, Robert, 1993. "Option Value of Emission Allowances," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 233-249, September.
    20. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    21. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    22. Meredith Fowlie & Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur, 2012. "What Do Emissions Markets Deliver and to Whom? Evidence from Southern California's NOx Trading Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 965-993, April.
    23. Dassios, Angelos & Wu, Shanle, 2009. "On barrier strategy dividends with Parisian implementation delay for classical surplus processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 195-202, October.
    24. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    25. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    26. Lawrence H. Goulder, 2013. "Markets for Pollution Allowances: What Are the (New) Lessons?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 87-102, Winter.
    27. Gonçalo Pacheco-De-Almeida & Peter Zemsky, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-00576375, HAL.
    28. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Wong, Jeff T.Y., 2017. "On the dual risk model with Parisian implementation delays in dividend payments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 159-173.
    29. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    30. Myrto Kalouptsidi, 2014. "Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 564-608, February.
    31. Erik D. Delarue & A. Denny Ellerman & William D. D'Haeseleer, 2010. "Short-Term Co2abatement In The European Power Sector: 2005–2006," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 113-133.
    32. Sødal, Sigbjørn & Koekebakker, Steen & Aadland, Roar, 2008. "Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 183-203, August.
    33. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    34. Richard Schmalensee & Robert N Stavins, 2017. "The design of environmental markets: What have we learned from experience with cap and trade?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 572-588.
    35. Chunsheng Zhou, 2000. "Time-to-Build and Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 273-282, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Klein, Tony, 2024. "EU ETS Market Expectations and Rational Bubbles," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302359, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Yu Yan & Yiming Lei & Yuyang Tang & Xufeng Zhao, 2023. "Ineffectiveness of carbon cap-and-trade market," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(7), pages 2317-2342, November.
    3. Fredrik Armerin & Han-Suck Song, 2021. "A framework for modelling cash flow lags," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-13, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fredrik Armerin & Han-Suck Song, 2021. "A framework for modelling cash flow lags," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Simon Quemin, 2016. "Intertemporal abatement decisions under ambiguity aversion in a cap and trade," Working Papers 1604, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Akamatsu, Takashi & Nagae, Takeshi, 2011. "A network of options: Evaluating complex interdependent decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 714-729, May.
    4. Baudry, Marc & Faure, Anouk & Quemin, Simon, 2021. "Emissions trading with transaction costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    6. Kou, Ying & Luo, Meifeng, 2018. "Market driven ship investment decision using the real option approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 714-729.
    7. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    8. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    9. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    10. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    11. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    12. Luca Taschini & Marc Chesney & Mei Wang, 2014. "Experimental comparison between markets on dynamic permit trading and investment in irreversible abatement with and without non-regulated companies," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 23-50, August.
    13. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    14. : Dubois, Loick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2024. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Carbon Permit Banking," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/20, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    15. Jackson Dorsey, 2019. "Waiting for the Courts: Effects of Policy Uncertainty on Pollution and Investment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(4), pages 1453-1496, December.
    16. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    17. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    18. Shackleton, Mark B. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Wojakowski, Rafal, 2004. "Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 179-201, January.
    19. Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-23, September.
    20. Gkochari, Christiana C., 2015. "Optimal investment timing in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 102-109.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon markets; Climate change; Cap-and-trade; Implementation delay; Irreversible investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:126:y:2021:i:c:s0165188920301810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.