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Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers

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  • Sødal, Sigbjørn
  • Koekebakker, Steen
  • Aadland, Roar

Abstract

This paper derives a real options model of flexibility and applies it to shipping, valuing the option to switch between the dry bulk market and wet bulk market for a combination carrier, a ship type that is capable of operating in both markets but that has fallen out of favor due to high price tags. The model is a mean-reverting (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) version of a standard entry-exit model with stochastic prices. A closed form solution for the value of flexibility is derived, expressed in terms of Kummer functions. The estimated value of flexibility is related to historical price differentials between combination carriers and oil tankers of comparable size. Based on numerical experiments it is concluded that new combination carriers may enter the market in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Sødal, Sigbjørn & Koekebakker, Steen & Aadland, Roar, 2008. "Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 183-203, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:183-203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
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    7. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Pliska, Stanley R., 2004. "Option valuation with co-integrated asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 727-754, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Investment into container shipping capacity: A real options approach in oligopolistic competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 130-147.
    2. BALLIAUW, Matteo, 2015. "An analysis of entry and exit decisions in shipping markets under uncertainty," Working Papers 2015013, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    3. Axarloglou, Kostas & Visvikis, Ilias & Zarkos, Stefanos, 2012. "The Time Dimension And Value Of Flexibility In Resource Allocation: The Case Of The Maritime Industry," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 2-2012, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    4. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5304-5316, December.
    5. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2016. "Optimal switching decisions under stochastic volatility with fast mean reversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 148-157.
    6. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Andrianos E. Tsekrekos, 2011. "The Option to Change the Flag of a Vessel," Chapters,in: International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Gkochari, Christiana C., 2015. "Optimal investment timing in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 102-109.
    8. Fred Espen Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2016. "Stochastic modeling of Supramax spot and forward freight rates," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 18(4), pages 391-413, December.

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