IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v101y2018icp397-417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business cycles and emission trading with banking

Author

Listed:
  • Lintunen, Jussi
  • Kuusela, Olli-Pekka

Abstract

We propose an emission cap adjustment policy for an emission trading system (ETS) that allows banking of allowances for later use and faces business cycle uncertainty. The forward looking banking decisions cause a commitment problem with respect to regulator’s next period allowance supply decision. We tackle the commitment problem by focusing on the Markov equilibrium of the policy. The equilibrium policy has a surprisingly simple structure, combining features from both price and quantity instruments. The regulator’s ability to choose a new cap for each period does not render banking obsolete, but on the contrary, makes banking an integral part of the equilibrium policy. Using data from the EU ETS to calibrate the model, we solve the Markov equilibrium policy for the case of carbon emissions regulation and compare Markov policies with and without the possibility to bank allowances. A counterfactual analysis of the EU ETS, during the period of 2009–2013, shows that the optimal Markov policy would have led to a steadier allowance price level and a stricter emission regulation than what was actually observed in the EU ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Lintunen, Jussi & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2018. "Business cycles and emission trading with banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 397-417.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:397-417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292117302039
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karp, Larry & Newbery, David M., 1993. "Intertemporal consistency issues in depletable resources," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 19, pages 881-931, Elsevier.
    2. David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
    3. Matti Liski & Juan‐Pablo Montero, 2011. "Market Power in an Exhaustible Resource Market: The Case of Storable Pollution Permits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 116-144, March.
    4. Feng, Hongli & Zhao, Jinhua, 2006. "Alternative intertemporal permit trading regimes with stochastic abatement costs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 24-40, January.
    5. Martin L. Weitzman, 1974. "Prices vs. Quantities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(4), pages 477-491.
    6. Fell, Harrison & MacKenzie, Ian A. & Pizer, William A., 2012. "Prices versus quantities versus bankable quantities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 607-623.
    7. Roberton Williams, 2002. "Prices vs. Quantities vs. Tradable Quantities," NBER Working Papers 9283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eirik Amundsen & Fridrik Baldursson & Jørgen Mortensen, 2006. "Price Volatility and Banking in Green Certificate Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 35(4), pages 259-287, December.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-1428, November.
    10. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, November.
    11. Richard Newell & William Pizer & Jiangfeng Zhang, 2005. "Managing Permit Markets to Stabilize Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 31(2), pages 133-157, June.
    12. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    13. Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
    14. Hoel, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2001. "Taxes and quotas for a stock pollutant with multiplicative uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 91-114, October.
    15. Fischer, Carolyn & Springborn, Michael, 2011. "Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 352-366.
    16. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    17. Holland, Stephen P. & Moore, Michael R., 2013. "Market design in cap and trade programs: Permit validity and compliance timing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 671-687.
    18. Brian C. Murray & Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer, 2009. "Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 84-103, Winter.
    19. Wood, Peter John & Jotzo, Frank, 2011. "Price floors for emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1746-1753, March.
    20. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2005. "A Note on Market Power in an Emission Permits Market with Banking," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 31(2), pages 159-173, June.
    21. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    22. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Regulating stock externalities under uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 416-432, March.
    23. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April.
    24. Benjamin Leard, 2013. "The Welfare Effects of Allowance Banking in Emissions Trading Programs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 175-197, June.
    25. Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Daniel Raimi, 2013. "Carbon Markets 15 Years after Kyoto: Lessons Learned, New Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 123-146, Winter.
    26. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
    27. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2006. "On Pollution Permit Banking and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 283-302, May.
    28. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    29. Hoel, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2002. "Taxes versus quotas for a stock pollutant," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 367-384, November.
    30. Yates, Andrew J. & Cronshaw, Mark B., 2001. "Pollution Permit Markets with Intertemporal Trading and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 104-118, July.
    31. Harrison Fell & Richard Morgenstern, 2010. "Alternative Approaches to Cost Containment in a Cap-and-Trade System," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 275-297, October.
    32. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    33. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    34. Fell, Harrison & Burtraw, Dallas & Morgenstern, Richard D. & Palmer, Karen L., 2012. "Soft and hard price collars in a cap-and-trade system: A comparative analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 183-198.
    35. Harrison Fell & Dallas Burtraw & Richard Morgenstern & Karen Palmer, 2012. "Climate Policy Design with Correlated Uncertainties in Offset Supply and Abatement Cost," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(3), pages 589-611.
    36. Grüll, Georg & Taschini, Luca, 2011. "Cap-and-trade properties under different hybrid scheme designs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 107-118, January.
    37. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    38. Brink, Corjan & Vollebergh, Herman R.J. & van der Werf, Edwin, 2016. "Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 603-617.
    39. Pizer, William A., 2002. "Combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 409-434, September.
    40. Weitzman, Martin L, 1978. "Optimal Rewards for Economic Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 683-691, September.
    41. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    42. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    43. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Lintunen, Jussi & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2015. "Optimal Management of Markets for Bankable Emission Permits," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 205290, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    45. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    46. Fell, Harrison, 2016. "Comparing policies to confront permit over-allocation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 53-68.
    47. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    48. Roberts, Marc J. & Spence, Michael, 1976. "Effluent charges and licenses under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 193-208.
    49. Perino, Grischa & Willner, Maximilian, 2016. "Procrastinating reform: The impact of the market stability reserve on the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 37-52.
    50. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2022. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 221-253.
    2. Olli-Pekka Kuusela & Jussi Lintunen, 2020. "A Cap-and-Trade Commitment Policy with Allowance Banking," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(3), pages 421-455, March.
    3. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Arbex, Marcelo & Batu, Michael, 2020. "What if people value nature? Climate change and welfare costs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Taschini, Luca, 2021. "Flexibility premium of emissions permits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2019. "Dynamic supply adjustment and banking under uncertainty in an emission trading scheme: The market stability reserve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 213-226.
    7. Simon Quemin & Raphael Trotignon, 2018. "Competitive Permit Storage and Market Design: An Application to the EU-ETS," Working Papers 2018.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    8. Stefano Clo' & Gianluca Iannucci & Alessandro Tampieri, 2024. "Emission permits and firms' environmental responsibility," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_06.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    9. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans, 2018. "Regulating Stock Externalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7383, CESifo.
    10. Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K., 2023. "Adjustable emissions caps and the price of pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Jussi Lintunen & Lauri Vilmi, 2021. "Optimal Emission Prices Over the Business Cycles," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(1), pages 135-167, September.
    12. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Wan, 2018. "Optimal Stabilization in an Emission Permits Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 6950, CESifo.
    13. René Aïd & Sara Biagini, 2023. "Optimal dynamic regulation of carbon emissions market," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 80-115, January.
    14. Ren'e Aid & Sara Biagini, 2021. "Optimal dynamic regulation of carbon emissions market: A variational approach," Papers 2102.12423, arXiv.org.
    15. : Dubois, Loick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2024. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Carbon Permit Banking," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/20, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olli-Pekka Kuusela & Jussi Lintunen, 2020. "A Cap-and-Trade Commitment Policy with Allowance Banking," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(3), pages 421-455, March.
    2. Jussi Lintunen & Olli-Pekka Kuusela, 2015. "Optimal Management of Markets for Bankable Emission PermitsOptimal Management of Markets for Bankable Emission Permits," Working Papers 2015.48, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Simon Quemin & Raphael Trotignon, 2018. "Competitive Permit Storage and Market Design: An Application to the EU-ETS," Working Papers 2018.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    4. Fell, Harrison & MacKenzie, Ian A. & Pizer, William A., 2012. "Prices versus quantities versus bankable quantities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 607-623.
    5. Thomas D. Jeitschko & Pallavi Pal, 2021. "Curbing Price Fluctuations in Cap-and-Trade Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9266, CESifo.
    6. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Harrison Fell & Richard Morgenstern, 2010. "Alternative Approaches to Cost Containment in a Cap-and-Trade System," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 275-297, October.
    8. Makoto Hasegawa & Stephen Salant, 2015. "The Dynamics of Pollution Permits," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 61-79, October.
    9. : Dubois, Loick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2024. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Carbon Permit Banking," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/20, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    10. Richard Newell & William Pizer & Jiangfeng Zhang, 2005. "Managing Permit Markets to Stabilize Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 31(2), pages 133-157, June.
    11. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Wan, 2018. "Optimal Stabilization in an Emission Permits Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 6950, CESifo.
    12. Yu, Jongmin & Mallory, Mindy L., 2015. "An optimal hybrid emission control system in a multiple compliance period model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 16-28.
    13. Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans, 2018. "Regulating Stock Externalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7383, CESifo.
    14. Burtraw, Dallas & Holt, Charles & Palmer, Karen & Paul, Anthony & Shobe, William, 2018. "Quantities with Prices," RFF Working Paper Series 18-08, Resources for the Future.
    15. Jiang, Minxing & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yi-Ming & Chevallier, Julien & He, Kaijian, 2018. "An intertemporal carbon emissions trading system with cap adjustment and path control," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 152-161.
    16. Burtraw, Dallas & Holt, Charles & Palmer, Karen & Shobe, William M., 2020. "Quantities with Prices: Price-Responsive Allowance Supply in Environmental Markets," RFF Working Paper Series 20-17, Resources for the Future.
    17. Martin L. Weitzman, 2020. "Prices or Quantities Can Dominate Banking and Borrowing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 437-463, April.
    18. Yolanda Fernández Fernández & María Angeles Fernández López & David González Hernández & Blanca Olmedillas Blanco, 2018. "Institutional Change and Environment: Lessons from the European Emission Trading System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, March.
    19. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    20. Stranlund, John K. & Murphy, James J. & Spraggon, John M., 2014. "Price controls and banking in emissions trading: An experimental evaluation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 71-86.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emission trading system; Markov equilibrium; Rational expectations equilibrium; Price-quantity hybrid policy; EU ETS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:397-417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.