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When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis

  • Tauer, Loren W.

The Dixit entry/exit real option model was applied to the entry/exit decisions of New York dairy farmers. For the cost structure of a 500-cow farm, the entry milk price is $17.52 per hundredweight (cwt) and the exit milk price is $10.84. For the 50-cow farm cost structure, the entry price is higher at $23.71 per cwt, and the exit price is also higher at $13.48. If infinite numbers of representative farms enter and exit at these prices, the price of milk should range between $13.48 and $17.52 per cwt.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10219
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Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 35 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:10219
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.narea.org/

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  1. Short, Sara D. & Livezey, Janet S., 2004. "Characteristics and Production Costs," Amber Waves, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.
  2. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  3. Tweeten, Luther G & Quance, C Leroy, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 175-83, May.
  4. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
  5. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. Timothy J. Richards & Paul M. Patterson, 1998. "Hysteresis and the Shortage of Agricultural Labor," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 683-695.
  7. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October.
  9. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Analysis of Automatic Milking Systems," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), October.
  10. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  11. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Staff Papers 121146, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  12. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
  13. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
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