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Can Hysteresis And Real Options Explain The Farmland Valuation Puzzle?

  • Turvey, Calum G.
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    This paper proposes that the common finding that land prices are systematically higher than their fundamental value as measured by the present value of future cash might be due to real options arising from uncertainty in cash flows. The paper posits a model in which the seller has a real option to postpone the sale of land. Because the value of land is measured as a present value, the buyer does not hold a similar option to postpone the purchase. It is argued that the seller's option offers a plausible explanation for the wedge between observed farmland prices and the present value model. The paper uses a Dixit and Pindyck (1996) real options framework. Using historical cash flow and land price information for Ontario, it is shown how real options can lead to a land price greater than that predicted by the present value model. The findings also suggest the existence of land price bubbles and shows how a real options framework can be used to detect bubbles.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34131
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    Paper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number 34131.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:uguewp:34131
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://fare.uoguelph.ca/

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    3. Maurice J. Roche, 2001. "Fads versus fundamentals in farmland prices: comment," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1070301, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    4. Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank.
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    7. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee, 1998. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 696-707.
    8. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1995. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    11. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    12. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    13. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
    14. Falk, Barry L., 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    17. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
    18. Jeffrey R. Stokes & William I. Nayda & Burton C. English, 1997. "The Pricing of Revenue Assurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 439-451.
    19. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-87, May.
    20. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May.
    21. Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    22. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    23. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee & Rauli Susmel, 2001. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1078-1081.
    24. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Turvey, Calum G. & Baker, Timothy G. & Weersink, Alfons, 1992. "Farm Operating Risk And Cash Rent Determination," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
    26. Hansen, Robert G, 1987. "A Theory for the Choice of Exchange Medium in Mergers and Acquisitions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 75-95, January.
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