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A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model Of Direct Subsidy Payments And Agricultural Investment

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  • Vercammen, James

Abstract

A stochastic dynamic programming model is used to compare the farmland investment impact of a fully decoupled direct payment and a standard price subsidy. The direct payment induces the farmer to invest because it lowers the farm's debt to asset ratio, which in turn reduces the probability of bankruptcy. The value of the real option to defer the investment decision is lower with a lower risk of bankruptcy, and thus the direct payment results in a higher probability of immediate investment. Simulation results demonstrate that for a farm facing moderate revenue and land price variability, the impact of a decoupled direct payment on farm investment is nearly as large as the investment impact of an equal-sized price subsidy. These results suggest that direct payments, such as those associated with U.S. production flexibility contracts, should be carefully scrutinized in on-going multilateral trade negotiations.

Suggested Citation

  • Vercammen, James, 2003. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model Of Direct Subsidy Payments And Agricultural Investment," Working Papers 15847, University of British Columbia, Food and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubcwps:15847
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David A. Hennessy, 1998. "The Production Effects of Agricultural Income Support Policies under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 46-57.
    2. Vercammen, James, 2000. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty and the threat of bankruptcy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 319-325, March.
    3. Milne, Alistair & Robertson, Donald, 1996. "Firm behaviour under the threat of liquidation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1427-1449, August.
    4. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2000. "North American Farm Programs and the WTO," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 768-774.
    5. Allen M. Featherstone & Timothy G. Baker, 1987. "An Examination of Farm Sector Real Asset Dynamics: 1910–85," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 532-546.
    6. Holt, Richard W. P., 2003. "Investment and dividends under irreversibility and financial constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 467-502, January.
    7. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee, 1998. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 696-707.
    8. Benjamin, Dwayne, 1992. "Household Composition, Labor Markets, and Labor Demand: Testing for Separation in Agricultural Household Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 287-322, March.
    9. Oliver Mahul, 2000. "The Output Decision of a Risk-Neutral Producer under Risk of Liquidation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 49-58.
    10. J. Stephen Clark & Murray Fulton & John T. Scott, 1993. "The Inconsistency of Land Values, Land Rents, and Capitalization Formulas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 147-155.
    11. Falk, Barry L., 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederic Courleux & Herve Guyomard & Fabrice Levert, 2007. "Étude prospective sur le fonctionnement des marchés des droits au paiement et de la réserve nationale mis en place dans le cadre de la réforme de la PAC de juin 2003," Working Papers hal-01595356, HAL.
    2. Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
    3. Baffes, John & De Gorter, Harry, 2005. "Disciplining agricultural support through decoupling," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3533, The World Bank.
    4. Marconi, V. & Raggi, M. & Viaggi, D. & Lefebvre, M. & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2015. "The impact of the 2013 Common Agricultural Policy reform on farmer's investment decisions: an ex-ante evaluation," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212225, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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