IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaa165/288444.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Plogmann, Jana
  • Mußhoff, Oliver
  • Odening, Martin
  • Ritter, Matthias

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to Western Germany and decompose the rent-price ratio into the expected present values of rental growth rates, real interest rates, and a land premium, i.e., the excess return on investment. This analysis reveals that the recent price surge on agricultural land markets was not unprecedented; that the land market rent-price ratio is rather low compared to other markets and varies considerably among federal states; and that (expected) premia for land are mostly negative, rendering investments in farmland unprofitable for financial investors. Finally, we find that changing expected present values of returns on land investments are the major driver for land price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2019. "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," 165th Seminar, April 4-5, 2019, Berlin, Germany 288444, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa165:288444
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.288444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/288444/files/Plogmann-112.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.288444?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Brent W. Ambrose & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2013. "House Prices and Fundamentals: 355 Years of Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 477-491, March.
    3. Sergio H. Lence, 2014. "Farmland Prices: Is This Time Different?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 577-603.
    4. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    5. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    6. Patton, Myles & Kostov, Philip & McErlean, Seamus & Moss, Joan, 2008. "Assessing the influence of direct payments on the rental value of agricultural land," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 397-405, October.
    7. Solveigh Hennig & Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, 2017. "The incidence of biogas feed-in tariffs on farmland rental rates – evidence from northern Germany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(2), pages 231-254.
    8. Sergio H. Lence & Douglas J. Miller, 1999. "Transaction Costs and the Present Value Model of Farmland: Iowa, 1900–1994," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 257-272.
    9. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2020. "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(1).
    10. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    11. Carsten Croonenbroeck & Martin Odening & Silke Hüttel, 2020. "Farmland values and bidder behaviour in first-price land auctions [Identification of standard auction models]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 558-590.
    12. Jangryoul Kim & Gieyoung Lim, 2014. "Understanding the Irish price-rent ratio: an unobserved component approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 836-841, August.
    13. Gloy, Brent A. & Boehlje, Michael & Dobbins, Craig L. & Hurt, Christopher & Baker, Timothy G., 2011. "Are Economic Fundamentals Driving Farmland Values?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-6.
    14. Gabriel Power & Calum Turvey, 2010. "US rural land value bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 649-656.
    15. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    16. Duvivier, Romain & Gaspart, Frederic & Frahan, Bruno Henry de, 2005. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Farmland Price: An Application to the Effects of the 1992 Cap Reform in Belgium," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24577, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Feichtinger, Paul & Salhofer, Klaus, 2013. "What Do We Know about the Influence of Agricultural Support on Agricultural Land Prices?," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 62(2).
    18. Kilian, Stefan & Anton, Jesus & Roder, Norbert & Salhofer, Klaus, 2008. "Impacts Of 2003 Cap Reform On Land Prices: From Theory To Empirical Results," 109th Seminar, November 20-21, 2008, Viterbo, Italy 44808, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2010. "Expected Returns and Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3469-3519.
    20. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee, 1998. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 696-707.
    21. Cunha, Arlindo & Swinbank, Alan, 2011. "An Inside View of the CAP Reform Process: Explaining the MacSharry, Agenda 2000, and Fischler Reforms," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199591572.
    22. Wendong Zhang & Cynthia J. Nickerson, 2015. "Housing Market Bust and Farmland Values: Identifying the Changing Influence of Proximity to Urban Centers," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 91(4), pages 605-626.
    23. Kishor, N. Kundan & Morley, James, 2015. "What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 235-249.
    24. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:477-491 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    26. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    27. Lehn, Friederike & Bahrs, Enno, 2018. "Analysis of factors influencing standard farmland values with regard to stronger interventions in the German farmland market," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 138-146.
    28. Feichtinger, Paul & Salhofer, Klaus, 2013. "What Do We Know about the Influence of Agricultural Support on Agricultural Land Prices?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, May.
    29. Barry Falk, 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(1), pages 1-10.
    30. Silke Hüttel & Matthias Ritter & Viacheslav Esaulov & Martin Odening, 2016. "Is there a term structure in land lease rates?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(1), pages 165-187.
    31. Falk, Barry L. & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fads Versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    32. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    33. Kuethe, Todd H. & Ifft, Jennifer & Morehart, Mitchell J., 2011. "The Influence Of Urban Areas On Farmland Values," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-7.
    34. Brett Olsen & Jeffrey Stokes, 2015. "Is Farm Real Estate The Next Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, April.
    35. J. Stephen Clark & Murray Fulton & John T. Scott, 1993. "The Inconsistency of Land Values, Land Rents, and Capitalization Formulas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 147-155.
    36. Falk, Barry L., 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johanna Jauernig & Stephan Brosig & Silke Hüttel, 2023. "Profession and residency matter: Farmers' preferences for farmland price regulation in Germany," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 816-834, September.
    2. Johanna Jauernig & Stephan Brosig & Silke Hüttel, 2023. "Profession and residency matter: Farmers' preferences for farmland price regulation in Germany," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 816-834, September.
    3. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2020. "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(1).
    4. Schaak, Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2020. "A geoadditive distributional regression analysis of the local relationship of land prices and land rents in Germany," FORLand Working Papers 20 (2020), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    5. Grau, Aaron & Jasic, Svetlana & Ritter, Matthias & Odening, Martin, 2019. "The impact of production intensity on agricultural land prices," FORLand Working Papers 09 (2019), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schaak, Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2020. "A geoadditive distributional regression analysis of the local relationship of land prices and land rents in Germany," FORLand Working Papers 20 (2020), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    2. Grau, Aaron & Jasic, Svetlana & Ritter, Matthias & Odening, Martin, 2019. "The impact of production intensity on agricultural land prices," FORLand Working Papers 09 (2019), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    3. Henning Schaak & Oliver Musshoff, 2022. "The distribution of the rent–price relationship of agricultural land in Germany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(3), pages 696-718.
    4. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    5. Pinto, Allan & Griffin, Terry W., 2022. "Detecting bubbles via single time-series variable: applying spatial specification tests to farmland values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad Hart, 2021. "The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(5), pages 746-766, February.
    7. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    9. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2014. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 91-103.
    10. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    11. Saguatti, Annachiara & Erickson, Kenneth & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2014. "Spatial panel models for the analysis of land prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182757, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Marten Graubner, 2018. "Lost in space? The effect of direct payments on land rental prices," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(2), pages 143-171.
    13. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    14. Levon Goukasian & Mehdi Majbouri, 2010. "The Reaction of Real Estate–Related Industries to the Monetary Policy Actions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 355-398, June.
    15. Pavel Ciaian & Edoardo Baldoni & d'Artis Kancs & Dušan Drabik, 2021. "The Capitalization of Agricultural Subsidies into Land Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 17-38, October.
    16. Renhe Liu & Eddie Chi-man Hui & Jiaqi Lv & Yi Chen, 2017. "What Drives Housing Markets: Fundamentals or Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 395-415, November.
    17. Gabriel Power & Calum Turvey, 2010. "US rural land value bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 649-656.
    18. Cenedese, Gino & Mallucci, Enrico, 2016. "What moves international stock and bond markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 94-113.
    19. Vercammen, James, 2003. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model Of Direct Subsidy Payments And Agricultural Investment," Working Papers 15847, University of British Columbia, Food and Resource Economics.
    20. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa165:288444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.