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What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio

Author

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  • Plogmann, Jana
  • Mußhoff, Oliver
  • Odening, Martin
  • Ritter, Matthias

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to Western Germany and decompose the rent-price ratio into the expected present values of rental growth rates, real interest rates, and a land premium, i.e., the excess return on investment. This analysis reveals that the recent price surge on agricultural land markets was not unprecedented; that the land market rent-price ratio is rather low compared to other markets and varies considerably among federal states; and that (expected) premia for land are mostly negative, rendering investments in farmland unprofitable for financial investors. Finally, we find that changing expected present values of returns on land investments are the major driver for land price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, "undated". "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," 165th Seminar, April 4-5, 2019, Berlin, Germany 288444, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa165:288444
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.288444
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    Cited by:

    1. Meissner, Luise & Plogmann, Jana & Musshoff, Oliver, 2021. "Are Policy Changes Visible in German Farmland Price Time Series?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315027, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Marten Graubner & Silke Hüttel, 2024. "Rental and sale prices of agricultural lands under spatial competition," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Marius Michels & Cord‐Friedrich von Hobe & Miryam Sarah Merk & Thomas Kneib & Oliver Musshoff, 2026. "Analyzing individual rent price ratios in eastern German agricultural land markets: A GAMLSS approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 1200-1218, July.
    5. Jauernig, Johanna & Brosig, Stephan & Hüttel, Silke, 2023. "Profession and residency matter: Farmers' preferences for farmland price regulation in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(3), pages 816-834.
    6. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2020. "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(01).
    7. Henning Schaak & Oliver Musshoff, 2022. "The distribution of the rent–price relationship of agricultural land in Germany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(3), pages 696-718.
    8. Schaak, Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2020. "A geoadditive distributional regression analysis of the local relationship of land prices and land rents in Germany," FORLand Working Papers 20 (2020), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    9. Grau, Aaron & Jasic, Svetlana & Ritter, Matthias & Odening, Martin, 2019. "The impact of production intensity on agricultural land prices," FORLand Working Papers 09 (2019), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    10. Luise Meissner & Lisa Kappenberg & Oliver Musshoff, 2022. "An Analytical Framework for Evaluating Farmland Market Regulation: Examining the German Land Transaction Law," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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