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A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam

Author

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  • Quoc V. Luong
  • Loren W. Tauer

Abstract

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world's second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this article examines Vietnamese coffee growers' investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continue producing coffee even at relatively depressed price levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Quoc V. Luong & Loren W. Tauer, 2006. "A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 49-57, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:35:y:2006:i:1:p:49-57
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2006.00138.x
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    1. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Understanding the Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150331, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Thang, Tran Cong & Burton, Michael P. & Brennan, Donna C., 2009. "Optimal replanting and cutting rule for coffee farmers in Vietnam," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47638, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, "undated". "Experimental examination of land investment decisions with volatile returns A comparison between Kazakhstani and German farmers," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122454, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Daniel Gaitán-Cremaschi & Frits K. Van Evert & Don M. Jansen & Miranda P. M. Meuwissen & Alfons G. J. M. Oude Lansink, 2018. "Assessing the Sustainability Performance of Coffee Farms in Vietnam: A Social Profit Inefficiency Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the investment behavior of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124650, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 2012. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(3), pages 1-28, August.
    7. Eskandar Elmarzougui & Bruno Larue, 2013. "On the Evolving Relationship Between Corn and Oil Prices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 344-360, June.
    8. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Coffee price volatility and intra-household labour supply: Evidence from Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-16, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    10. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 154775, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    11. Pieralli, Simone & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin, 2014. "Abandonment of milk production under uncertainty and inefficiency: The case of West German farms," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170236, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Nguyen Hung Anh & Wolfgang Bokelmann & Ngo Thi Thuan & Do Thi Nga & Nguyen Van Minh, 2019. "Smallholders’ Preferences for Different Contract Farming Models: Empirical Evidence from Sustainable Certified Coffee Production in Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    14. Nguyen Hung Anh & Wolfgang Bokelmann & Do Thi Nga & Nguyen Van Minh, 2019. "Toward Sustainability or Efficiency: The Case of Smallholder Coffee Farmers in Vietnam," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
    15. Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Kouadio, Louis & Kath, Jarrod & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rafiei, Vahid & Scobie, Michael & Stone, Roger, 2020. "Win-win: Improved irrigation management saves water and increases yield for robusta coffee farms in Vietnam," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    16. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Policy Impact Analysis on Investments and Disinvestments under Competition: A Real Options Approach," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124294, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    17. Clément, Rigal & Tuan, Duong & Cuong, Vo & Le Van, Bon & Trung, Hoang quôc & Long, Chau Thi Minh, 2023. "Transitioning from Monoculture to Mixed Cropping Systems: The Case of Coffee, Pepper, and Fruit Trees in Vietnam," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    18. Jonathon Siegle & Gregory Astill & Zoë Plakias & Daniel Tregeagle, 2024. "Estimating perennial crop supply response: A methodology literature review," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 159-180, March.
    19. Duyen Nhat Lam Tran & Tien Dinh Nguyen & Thuy Thu Pham & Roberto F. Rañola & Thinh An Nguyen, 2021. "Improving Irrigation Water Use Efficiency of Robusta Coffee ( Coffea canephora ) Production in Lam Dong Province, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    20. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Coffee price volatility and intra-household labour supply," WIDER Working Paper Series 016, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Seyoum, Emayenesh & Chan, Chris, 2012. "A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124446, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    22. Hanna J. Ihli & Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2014. "Does timing matter? A real options experiment to farmers' investment and disinvestment behaviours," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(3), pages 430-452, July.
    23. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy, 2012. "The planting real option in cash rent valuation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 765-776, February.
    24. Seyoum, Emayenesh & Karanja, Francis, 2014. "Investment decisions of dairy farmers in south-west Victoria under price and yield uncertainty," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Macquarie, Australia 183419, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    25. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.

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