A Simple Model of Endogenous Agricultural Commodity Price Fluctuations with Storage
A debate has been raging for centuries regarding the effects of inter-annual storage on commodity prices. Most analysts consider storage to function as a price stabilizer, while others place it at the core of an explanation of intriguing features of commodity price series, such as skewed distributions. Most studies have been developed in the context of the theory of competitive storage where random shocks affect supply or demand. Recently, the endogenous chaotic behavior of markets has become another possible hypothesis regarding the origin of commodity price fluctuations. We develop a nonlinear cobweb model with intra- and inter-annual storage, risk averse agents and adaptive expectations. Like the theory of competitive storage, this nonlinear cobweb model with storage can reproduce some of the stylized facts of agricultural commodity prices (autocorrelation of first rank, low kurtosis and skewness). In addition, the effects of storage on price variation are mixed. In the presence of inter-annual storage, chaotic price series show less variation compared to a situation without inter-annual storage but we find that storage contributes to the endogenous volatility of prices by making chaotic dynamics more likely.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Brock & Pietro Dindo & Cars Hommes, 2006. "Adaptive rational equilibrium with forward looking agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 2(3-4), pages 241-278.
- Robert W. Fogel, 1989. "Second Thoughts on the European Escape from Hunger: Famines, Price Elasticities, Entitlements, Chronic Malnutrition, and Mortality Rates," NBER Historical Working Papers 0001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasiou, George & Karafyllis, Iasson & Kotsios, Stelios, 2008. "Price stabilization using buffer stocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1212-1235, April.
- Boussard, Jean-Marc & Gerard, Francoise & Piketty, Marie Gabrielle & Ayouz, Mourad & Voituriez, Tancrede, 2006. "Endogenous risk and long run effects of liberalization in a global analysis framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 457-475, May.
- Brian D. Wright & Jeffrey C. Williams, 1984. "The Welfare Effects of the Introduction of Storage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(1), pages 169-192.
- repec:feb:artefa:0008 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
- Boussard, Jean-Marc, 1996. "When risk generates chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 433-446, May.
- José A. Scheinkman & Jack Schechtman, 1983. "A Simple Competitive Model with Production and Storage," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 427-441.
- Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Staff Papers 121146, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Voituriez, Tancrede, 2001. "What explains price volatility changes in commodity markets? Answers from the world palm-oil market," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 295-301, September.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
- Voituriez, Tancrede, 2001. "What explains price volatility changes in commodity markets? Answers from the world palm-oil market," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(2-3), September.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1990.
"Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Myers, Robert J., 2006. "On the costs of food price fluctuations in low-income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 288-301, August.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
- Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
- Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2011-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fordham Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.