Storage and the Volatility of Agricultural Prices: A Model of Endogenous Fluctuations
Recent developments in world food markets stress the importance of identifying the sources of food price volatility. This paper develops a nonlinear Cobweb model with endogenous volatility which accounts for several characteristics of agricultural commodity markets (seasonality, storage) and leads to price series with positive skewness and autocorrelation, as in actual commodity prices. Practical consequences may imply a rethinking of the current methods of world food market regulation.
|Date of creation:||2008|
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