IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03896981.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the role of commodity traders: A theoretical approach

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Chiappini

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

  • Yves Jegourel

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

Empirical models of international commodity trade ows tend to show that exchange rate volatility has either no or negative impact on export volumes. This analysis has a number of limitations. In particular, it underestimates the role of physical traders and, consequently, the importance of future markets. In this context, this article aims to provide the theoretical underpinnings to demonstrate that these traders play a very particular role and that they have an influence on the reality of export flows due to their use of future contracts. Using a very simple cobweb model, we demonstrate that exchange rate uncertainty fuel commodities' exports while futures market volatility could have a positive impact on the level of exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Chiappini & Yves Jegourel, 2019. "Explaining the role of commodity traders: A theoretical approach," Post-Print hal-03896981, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03896981
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sophie Mitra & Jean‐Marc Boussard, 2012. "A simple model of endogenous agricultural commodity price fluctuations with storage," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 1-15, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Patel, Pralit & Abigail, Snyder & Wise, Marshall & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James, 2021. "Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets," Conference papers 333245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Piotr BORAWSKI & Aneta BELDYCKA-BORAWSKA & James W. DUNN, 2018. "Price volatility of Polish agricultural commodities in the view of the Common Agricultural Policy," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(5), pages 216-226.
    4. Piotr Borawski & Wojciech Gotkiewicz & James W. Dunn & Theodore Alter, 2015. "The Impact of Price Volatility of Agricultural Commodities in Polandon Alternative Incomes of Conventional, Ecological and AgritourismFarms," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 1(4), pages 299-310, April.
    5. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Katchova, Ani & Miranda, Mario Javier, 2016. "Examining pricing mechanics in the poultry value chain - empirical evidence from Pakistan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235953, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2019. "On the drivers of global grain price volatility: an empirical investigation," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 31-42.
    7. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, 2023. "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Jean-Louis Rastoin, 2018. "Accélérer la transition vers une alimentation durable par un changement de paradigme scientifique et économique et des politiques publiques innovantes," Post-Print hal-01973487, HAL.
    9. Hommes, Cars & Li, Kai & Wagener, Florian, 2022. "Production delays and price dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 341-362.
    10. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian, 2017. "The Effects of Private Stocks versus Public Stocks on Food Price Volatility," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259185, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca & Francesco Contò & Gianluca Nardone & Antonio Stasi, 2018. "Drivers of grain price volatility: a cursory critical review," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(8), pages 347-356.
    12. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Miranda, Mario J., 2018. "Complex price dynamics in vertically linked cobweb markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 363-378.
    13. Benoit Beila MALAN, 2013. "Volatility and stabilization of the price of coffee and cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(7), pages 333-340.
    14. Fausto Cavalli & Ahmad Naimzada & Nicol`o Pecora & Marina Pireddu, 2018. "Agents' beliefs and economic regimes polarization in interacting markets," Papers 1805.00387, arXiv.org.
    15. Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Tristan Le Cotty, 2018. "Why does on†farm storage fail to mitigate price volatility?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 71-82, January.
    16. Rong-Gang Cong & Mette Termansen & Mark V. Brady, 2017. "Managing soil natural capital: a prudent strategy for adapting to future risks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 439-463, August.
    17. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, 2017. "Market Fundamentals and International Grain Price Volatility," 2017 Sixth AIEAA Conference, June 15-16, Piacenza, Italy 261255, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    18. Yiyang Qiao & Minseong Kang & Byeong-il Ahn, 2023. "Analysis of Factors Affecting Vegetable Price Fluctuation: A Case Study of South Korea," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Eran Guse & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2022. "Communication and Learning: The Bilateral Information Transmission in the Cobweb Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 693-723, August.
    20. Berg, Ernst, 2017. "Impacts of Inventory Management on Price Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Insights from a System Dynamics Model," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261281, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economy; Trade; Commodities & Energy; Natural Resources;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03896981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.