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Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: An Application to Meat Demand

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  • Matthew T. Holt
  • Joseph V. Balagtas

Abstract

This paper explores the role of structural change in systems of demand equations. Specifically, we adapt the time—varying regression framework of Lin and Teräsvirta (1994), which in turn is related to the dynamic smooth transition models introduced by Teräsvirta (1994). Unlike previous efforts at modeling structural change in demand systems, we do not impose the nature of the change to be monotonic—several non-monotonic alternatives are considered. An application is presented using the Almost Ideal Inverse Demand System (IAIDS) applied to U.S. meat demand data, 1960-2004. Results show the importance of modeling structural change and that, moreover, the best-fitting model is associated with a form of symmetric, non-monotonic structural change.
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Suggested Citation

  • Matthew T. Holt & Joseph V. Balagtas, 2009. "Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: An Application to Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1424-1431.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:91:y:2009:i:5:p:1424-1431
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01359.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Meilin & Wang, Holly & Hua, Yizhou & Qin, Fei & Yang, Jing, 2020. "African Swine Fever in China: Shocks, Responses, and Implications on Trade," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304469, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Ariel Soto‐Caro & Feng Wu & Tian Xia & Zhengfei Guan, 2023. "Demand analysis with structural changes: Model and application to the US blueberry market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 1100-1116, October.
    3. Daiki Maki & Yasushi Ota, 2021. "Testing for Time-Varying Properties Under Misspecified Conditional Mean and Variance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1167-1182, April.
    4. Darko, Francis Addeah & Eales, James S., 2013. "Meat Demand in the US During and After the Great Recession," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150146, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Hussein, Zekarias & Rodriguez, Nestor & Eales, James S., 2013. "STARs with the GIDDS: Smooth Transition Functions and Structural Change," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150755, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Schroeder, Ted C., 2025. "Agricultural Economics Research as Cattle and Beef Markets Ascended from Demise," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 50(4), December.
    7. Walters, Lurleen M. & Jones, Keithly G., 2016. "Caribbean Food Import Demand: An Application of the CBS Differential Demand System," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 47(2), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Li, Wenying & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., "undated". "Habit Formation with Smooth Transitions: Estimating Demand for U.S. Carbonated-Sweetened Beverages and Beer," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273852, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Ning, Xin & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett B., 2021. "Estimating Structural Change in the Japanese Beef Import Market in the Wake of BSE: A Smooth Transition Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(01), January.
    10. Ma, Meilin & Wang, H. Holly & Hua, Yizhou & Qin, Fei & Yang, Jing, 2021. "African swine fever in China: Impacts, responses, and policy implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Pede, Valerien O. & Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M., 2013. "Nonlinearities in Regional Rice Prices in the Philippines: Evidence from a Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150246, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Hiroshi Mori & Toshio Inaba & John Dyck, 2016. "Accounting for structural changes in demand for foods in the presence of age and cohort effects: the case of fresh fish in Japan," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 363-379, December.
    13. Asche, Frank & Zhang, Dengjun, 2013. "Testing Structural Changes in the U.S. Whitefish Import Market: An Inverse Demand System Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 453-470, December.
    14. Joseph V. Balagtas & Joseph Cooper & Patrick McLaughlin & Fei Qin, 2023. "Consumer demand for food at home and food away from home: Understanding economic linkages during the pandemic," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1604-1617, September.
    15. Chapda Nana, Guy & Larue, Bruno & Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2012. "Regional integration and dynamic adjustments: Evidence from gross national product functions for Canada and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 246-264.
    16. Sanders, Daniel J. & Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Gruere, Guillaume P., 2011. "Revisiting the palm oil boom: An examination of consumption in the oils complex," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103726, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Rodriguez, Nestor & Eales, James S., 2015. "Structural Change via Threshold Effects: Estimating U.S. Meat Demand Using Smooth Transition Functions and the Effects of More Women in the Labor Force," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Roheim, Cathy A. & Zhang, Dengjun, 2018. "Sustainability certification and product substitutability: Evidence from the seafood market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 92-100.
    19. Rodriguez, Nestor & Eales, James S., 2012. "Structural Change via Threshold Effects: Estimating U.S. Meat Demand Using Smooth Transition Functions," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124366, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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