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Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: An Application to Meat Demand

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  • Matthew T. Holt
  • Joseph V. Balagtas

Abstract

This paper explores the role of structural change in systems of demand equations. Specifically, we adapt the time—varying regression framework of Lin and Teräsvirta (1994), which in turn is related to the dynamic smooth transition models introduced by Teräsvirta (1994). Unlike previous efforts at modeling structural change in demand systems, we do not impose the nature of the change to be monotonic—several non-monotonic alternatives are considered. An application is presented using the Almost Ideal Inverse Demand System (IAIDS) applied to U.S. meat demand data, 1960-2004. Results show the importance of modeling structural change and that, moreover, the best-fitting model is associated with a form of symmetric, non-monotonic structural change.
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  • Matthew T. Holt & Joseph V. Balagtas, 2009. "Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: An Application to Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1424-1431.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:91:y:2009:i:5:p:1424-1431
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01359.x
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    15. Hiroshi Mori & Toshio Inaba & John Dyck, 2016. "Accounting for structural changes in demand for foods in the presence of age and cohort effects: the case of fresh fish in Japan," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 363-379, December.
    16. Joseph V. Balagtas & Joseph Cooper & Patrick McLaughlin & Fei Qin, 2023. "Consumer demand for food at home and food away from home: Understanding economic linkages during the pandemic," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1604-1617, September.
    17. Rodriguez, Nestor & Eales, James S., 2015. "Structural Change via Threshold Effects: Estimating U.S. Meat Demand Using Smooth Transition Functions and the Effects of More Women in the Labor Force," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Rodriguez, Nestor & Eales, James S., 2012. "Structural Change via Threshold Effects: Estimating U.S. Meat Demand Using Smooth Transition Functions," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124366, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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