African swine fever in China: Impacts, responses, and policy implications

African Swine Fever broke out in China in August 2018 and has caused a substantial loss to China’s hog industry. Pork is the dominant meat in the Chinese diet with its price being a critical component of China’s Consumer Price Index. In 2019, large increases in the pork price caused by the sharp reduction in pork supply incentivized the government to suppress the price by subsidizing large-scale hog farms. With an updated estimation of China’s meat demand, we argue that the ongoing policy interventions may not be the most efficient for achieving short-run reductions in the pork price. Subsidizing the production of chicken, a major substitute for pork and currently accounting for a relatively small share of meat consumption in China, could help suppress the pork price faster and at lower government costs. We estimate price dynamics and compute consumer surplus of multiple subsidy plans over a 30-month window from the third quarter of 2019 to the last quarter of 2021. Simulation outcomes suggest that allocating some subsidies from hog to chicken farms is likely to benefit consumers, producers, and the government. Our novel proposal of expanding production of a substitute meat to help lower the pork price after a large loss of the hog stock may be useful to other countries that suffer or may suffer from severe livestock losses due to animal epidemics.