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Supply and Demand Changes, Pig Epidemic Shocks, and Pork Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Study Based on an SVAR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jie Pang

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530007, China)

  • Juan Yin

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530007, China)

  • Guangchang Lu

    (Department of Logistics and Infrastructures, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Shimei Li

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530007, China)

Abstract

The price of pork, as an important livelihood indicator in China, and its price fluctuations have a significant impact on the lives of residents and social stability. Therefore, it is vital to study the main factors that affect pork price fluctuations and implement targeted regulatory measures in a timely manner. In the context of the increasing number of pig epidemics and increased pork imports, it is necessary to consider the impact of pig epidemics and imported pork on pork price fluctuations, which can more accurately reflect actual pork price fluctuations in China. In this paper, a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model was applied to analyze the main factors affecting pork price fluctuations from the aspects of the pork price, supply and demand changes, and pig epidemic shocks. The results indicated that the impact of the pork price on pork price fluctuations was the largest, with the largest contribution rate, whereas the current month’s pork price had a 29.60% impact on the pork price 18 months later. The supply factor that affected the pork price was the pig herd, with the current month’s pig herd having a 34.85% impact on the pork price after 18 months. Imported pork had a relatively small structural impact on pork price fluctuations, with a positive impact in the first four months and a subsequent negative impact. However, pig epidemics mainly caused pork price fluctuations by changing the market relation between demand and supply, with the current month’s epidemic depth index having a 9.78% impact on the pork price 18 months later. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended to focus on the monitoring and early warning of the pork price by analyzing big data, promoting large-scale farming, and strengthening the implementation of early prevention and control measures during disease outbreaks to stabilize pig herd and achieve a stable pork market supply and price.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Pang & Juan Yin & Guangchang Lu & Shimei Li, 2023. "Supply and Demand Changes, Pig Epidemic Shocks, and Pork Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Study Based on an SVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:17:p:13130-:d:1230148
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    2. Haohao Song & Jiquan Wang & Gang Xu & Zhanwei Tian & Fei Xu & Hong Deng, 2024. "Novel Model for Pork Supply Prediction in China Based on Modified Self-Organizing Migrating Algorithm," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-30, September.
    3. Mihai Dinu & Silviu Ionuț Beia & Simona Roxana Pătărlăgeanu & Alina Florentina Gheorghe & Irina Denisa Munteanu & Mihail Dumitru Sacală, 2025. "Exploring the Impact of Wheat Prices and Annual Income on Pig Carcass Prices in European Countries: A Spatial Panel Regression Analysis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Yi Li & Yu Wang & Liling Zhu & Beining Yan, 2026. "The effect and dynamic transmission mechanism of African swine fever on pork prices in China: A study based on the staggered DID model and SVAR model," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 72(5), pages 314-339.
    5. Junguo Hua & Jing Ding & Yufan Chen & Lulu Kang & Haiying Zhang & Junhua Zhang, 2024. "The fluctuation of pig prices and the identification of major drivers in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(11), pages 1-29, November.
    6. Haohao Song & Jiquan Wang, 2025. "A Knowledge-Driven Smart System Based on Reinforcement Learning for Pork Supply-Demand Regulation," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-34, July.
    7. Hiu Ying Cheung & Yu Qi Fu & Shuo Cheng Xu & Zan Yang, 2025. "Older people’s decisions of the community care: a welfare pluralism perspective," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & So-Hyun Park & Aziz Nasridinov, 2024. "Analyzing Internal and External Factors in Livestock Supply Forecasting Using Machine Learning: Sustainable Insights from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Mingyu Xu & Xin Lai & Yuying Zhang & Zongjun Li & Bohan Ouyang & Jingmiao Shen & Shiming Deng, 2024. "An Integrated Hog Supply Forecasting Framework Incorporating the Time-Lagged Piglet Feature: Sustainable Insights from the Hog Industry in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-24, September.
    10. Fei Li & Huishang Li & Xin Dai & Hongjie Ren & Huaiyang Li, 2025. "Does Online Public Opinion Regarding Swine Epidemic Diseases Influence Fluctuations in Pork Prices?—An Analysis Based on TVP-VAR and LDA Models," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.

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