IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v15y2025i7p730-d1623131.html

Does Online Public Opinion Regarding Swine Epidemic Diseases Influence Fluctuations in Pork Prices?—An Analysis Based on TVP-VAR and LDA Models

Author

Listed:
  • Fei Li

    (Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Huishang Li

    (Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Xin Dai

    (Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Hongjie Ren

    (Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Huaiyang Li

    (Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Big Data in Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

In modern society with a highly developed Internet, online public opinions on swine epidemic diseases have become one of the important influencing factors for the fluctuation of pork prices. In this paper, the Baidu AI large model, Time-Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Auto Regression (TVP-VAR) and Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) approaches are employed to investigate the dynamic impact of online public opinion regarding live swine epidemic diseases on fluctuations in pork price. The results show that: (1) Online public attention and negative sentiment exert significant time-varying impacts on pork price fluctuations, with these impacts being most pronounced in the short term and gradually diminishing over the medium and long term. (2) During the outbreaks of swine epidemic diseases, the impulse impact of online public attention and negative sentiment on pork price fluctuations exhibits distinct stage-specific characteristics. Initially, the impact is negative and subsequently turns positive before eventually waning. (3) The online discourse surrounding swine epidemic diseases can be categorized into four topics including disease transmission, vaccine technology, industry development, and disease prevention and control. Online public attention towards these four topics associated with negative sentiments generally contributes to variations in pork prices. Based on findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including the timely release of swine epidemic disease information, the establishment and enhancement of the online public opinion monitoring and early warning system, as well as adherence to routine prevention and control of pig epidemic diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Fei Li & Huishang Li & Xin Dai & Hongjie Ren & Huaiyang Li, 2025. "Does Online Public Opinion Regarding Swine Epidemic Diseases Influence Fluctuations in Pork Prices?—An Analysis Based on TVP-VAR and LDA Models," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:7:p:730-:d:1623131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/7/730/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/7/730/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Jiang, Cui-Feng & Li, Zheng-Zheng, 2022. "Does green finance inspire sustainable development? Evidence from a global perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 412-426.
    2. Xingchen Lv & Jun Meng & Qiufeng Wu, 2022. "Dynamic Influence of Network Public Opinions on Price Fluctuation of Small Agricultural Products Based on NLP-TVP-VAR Model—Taking Garlic as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:343604 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hassouneh, Islam & Radwan, Amr & Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Food scare crises and developing countries: The impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 264-274.
    5. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Zhongkun Zhu, 2019. "Avian Influenza, Public Opinion, and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory, and Evidence from China’s Broiler Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-44, April.
    6. Jie Pang & Juan Yin & Guangchang Lu & Shimei Li, 2023. "Supply and Demand Changes, Pig Epidemic Shocks, and Pork Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Study Based on an SVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Wei, Xinjie & Lin, Wanlong & Hennessy, David A., 2015. "Biosecurity and disease management in China’s animal agriculture sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 52-64.
    8. Kashyap, Pratyoosh & Suter, Jordan F. & McKee, Sophie C., 2024. "Measuring changes in pork demand, welfare effects, and the role of information sources in the event of an African swine fever outbreak in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Yadavalli, Anita & Jones, Keithly, 2014. "Does media influence consumer demand? The case of lean finely textured beef in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 219-227.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chi Ma & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Wei Liu & Xia Li, 2023. "Negative Media Sentiment about the Pig Epidemic and Pork Price Fluctuations: A Study on Spatial Spillover Effect and Mechanism," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Ye, Deping & Tang, Hong & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Rieger, Jörg & Kuhlgatz, Christian & Anders, Sven, 2016. "Food scandals, media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-92.
    4. Lan Yi & Congcong Duan & Jianping Tao & Yong Huang & Meihua Xing & Zhongkun Zhu & Caifeng Tan & Xinglin Chen, 2020. "Disease Outbreak, Health Scare, and Distance Decay: Evidence from HPAI Shocks in Chinese Meat Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-35, October.
    5. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Zhongkun Zhu & Caifeng Tan & Le Qi, 2019. "Food Safety Incident, Public Health Concern, and Risk Spillover Heterogeneity: Avian Influenza Shocks as Natural Experiments in China’s Consumer Markets," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-30, October.
    6. Mao, Qian & Ma, Xinyuan & Sun, Yunpeng, 2023. "Study of impacts of blockchain technology on renewable energy resource findings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 802-808.
    7. Shang, Yunfeng & Zong, Yi, 2024. "Role of e-commerce for promoting sustainability in the mining sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.
    9. Yin, Weijun & Liu, Bing & Yao, Dingjun & Chen, Gang, 2025. "Property insurance demand in response to climate risk: The role of green finance, economic policy uncertainty, and non-linearity," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana & Shen, Long, 2024. "Green bond issuance and credit risk: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Song, Xiaoling & Yao, Yumeng & Wu, Xueke, 2023. "Digital finance, technological innovation, and carbon dioxide emissions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 482-494.
    12. Mário Nuno Mata & Rui Miguel Dantas & João Miguel Rita, 2026. "Mapping the Knowledge Landscape of Sustainable Finance in the Face of Climate Challenges: a Bibliometric Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 17(2), pages 4140-4174, April.
    13. Mihai Dinu & Silviu Ionuț Beia & Simona Roxana Pătărlăgeanu & Alina Florentina Gheorghe & Irina Denisa Munteanu & Mihail Dumitru Sacală, 2025. "Exploring the Impact of Wheat Prices and Annual Income on Pig Carcass Prices in European Countries: A Spatial Panel Regression Analysis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-14, October.
    14. Xu, Jin & Liu, Chengjun & Dou, Gang & Cai, Yunfei, 2024. "Mineral resource management in Chinese rural areas: Policy assessment for green economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Liwen Ling & Dabin Zhang & Shanying Chen & Amin W. Mugera, 2020. "Can online search data improve the forecast accuracy of pork price in China?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 671-686, July.
    16. Abdulkarim. K. Alhowaish, 2025. "The Blue Economy in the Arabian Gulf: Trends, Gaps, and Pathways for Sustainable Coastal Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-24, October.
    17. Chu, Mingbin & Li, Bingwei & Gu, Weiyu & Dai, Xiajing, 2024. "Role of green finance in enhancing the sustainability in the mining sector in Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & So-Hyun Park & Aziz Nasridinov, 2024. "Analyzing Internal and External Factors in Livestock Supply Forecasting Using Machine Learning: Sustainable Insights from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-21, August.
    19. Lu, Xunfa & Huang, Nan & Mo, Jianlei & Ye, Zhitao, 2023. "Dynamics of the return and volatility connectedness among green finance markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Zhang, Lixia & Sun, Huaping & Pu, Tianlong & Sun, Hui & Chen, Zhenling, 2024. "Do green finance and hi-tech innovation facilitate sustainable development? Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1430-1442.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:7:p:730-:d:1623131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.