IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v13y2023i3p658-d1094452.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Negative Media Sentiment about the Pig Epidemic and Pork Price Fluctuations: A Study on Spatial Spillover Effect and Mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Chi Ma

    (College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Jianping Tao

    (College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Caifeng Tan

    (College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA)

  • Wei Liu

    (College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Xia Li

    (College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

As the media have continued to pay increasing attention to pig epidemic events, some local pig epidemic events may have a large degree of negative impact on the pork market and the whole pig industry chain, leading to pork price fluctuations. Strengthening pig epidemic control, monitoring media reporting sentiment, and stabilizing pork price fluctuations are important measures to improve the economy and people’s livelihood. This paper sets out to identify the relationship between the negative media sentiment about the pig epidemic and the market risk of pork prices within a setting with pig epidemic risk. Based on the provincial panel data of China from January 2011 to December 2022, this paper uses the spatial panel Durbin model to investigate the impact of negative media sentiment about the pig epidemic on pork price fluctuations from the perspective of local and spillover effects, and further discusses the mechanism of consumer sentiment. The empirical results show that: (1) The negative media sentiment about the pig epidemic significantly exacerbates pork price fluctuations, and there is a single threshold effect, which is weakened after crossing the threshold value. (2) The negative media sentiment about the pig epidemic has a significant positive spillover effect on pork price fluctuations, showing the characteristics of “being a neighbor”. The spatial spillover effect shows a significant spatial attenuation feature and an inverted U-shaped change with the inflection point at 1400 km. (3) The effect is related to the heterogeneity of media reputation. The local aggravation effect of local media’s negative sentiment on pork price fluctuations is greater than that of central media and information network platforms. In terms of the spatial spillover effect, the negative sentiment of the information network platforms has the strongest effect on the aggravation of pork price fluctuations in neighboring regions. (4) The mechanism study finds that the negative media sentiment about the pig epidemic positively affects pork price fluctuations through the path of “consumer sentiment”. Therefore, this research recommends that the government department should strengthen the supervision of media sentiment about the pig epidemic and reasonably guide consumer sentiment to stabilize the pork market.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi Ma & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Wei Liu & Xia Li, 2023. "Negative Media Sentiment about the Pig Epidemic and Pork Price Fluctuations: A Study on Spatial Spillover Effect and Mechanism," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:3:p:658-:d:1094452
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/3/658/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/3/658/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng, Yala & Li, Jiajie & Xia, Hui & Qi, Siyuan & Li, Jianhong, 2015. "The effects of food safety issues released by we media on consumers’ awareness and purchasing behavior: A case study in China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 44-52.
    2. Glynn T. Tonsor & Nicole J. Olynk, 2011. "Impacts of Animal Well‐Being and Welfare Media on Meat Demand," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 59-72, February.
    3. M. P. McCullough & T. L. Marsh & R. Huffaker, 2013. "Reconstructing market reactions to consumption harms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 173-179, February.
    4. Robert G. Chambers & Tigran A. Melkonyan, 2013. "Food Scares In An Uncertain World," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(6), pages 1432-1456, December.
    5. Chia-Wei Chen & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2013. "Press Coverage And Stock Price Deviation From Fundamental Value," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 175-214, June.
    6. Roger E. Kasperson & Ortwin Renn & Paul Slovic & Halina S. Brown & Jacque Emel & Robert Goble & Jeanne X. Kasperson & Samuel Ratick, 1988. "The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 177-187, June.
    7. Pieniak, Zuzanna & Vanhonacker, Filiep & Verbeke, Wim, 2013. "Consumer knowledge and use of information about fish and aquaculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 25-30.
    8. Oral Capps Jr. & Sergio Colin‐Castillo & Manuel A. Hernandez, 2013. "Do Marketing Margins Change with Food Scares? Examining the Effects of Food Recalls and Disease Outbreaks in the U.S. Red Meat Industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 426-454, September.
    9. Hassouneh, Islam & Radwan, Amr & Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Food scare crises and developing countries: The impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 264-274.
    10. Jie Ren & Hang Dong & Balaji Padmanabhan & Jeffrey V. Nickerson, 2021. "How does social media sentiment impact mass media sentiment? A study of news in the financial markets," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 72(9), pages 1183-1197, September.
    11. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Cepni, Oguzhan & Pham, Linh & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "How connected is the agricultural commodity market to the news-based investor sentiment?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Mintert, James R. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2010. "U.S. Meat Demand: Household Dynamics and Media Information Impacts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-17.
    13. William J. Burns & Paul Slovic, 2012. "Risk Perception and Behaviors: Anticipating and Responding to Crises," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 579-582, April.
    14. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Ye, Deping & Tang, Hong & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Liu, Peng & Ma, Liang, 2016. "Food scandals, media exposure, and citizens’ safety concerns: A multilevel analysis across Chinese cities," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 102-111.
    16. Pan, Xiongfeng & Guo, Shucen & Li, Mengna & Song, Jinbo, 2021. "The effect of technology infrastructure investment on technological innovation ——A study based on spatial durbin model," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    17. Yadavalli, Anita & Jones, Keithly, 2014. "Does media influence consumer demand? The case of lean finely textured beef in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 219-227.
    18. Ying (Jessica) Cao & David R. Just & Calum Turvey & Brian Wansink, 2015. "Existing Food Habits and Recent Choices Lead to Disregard of Food Safety Announcements," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(4), pages 491-511, December.
    19. Leigh J. Maynard & Ellen Goddard & John Conley, 2008. "Impact of BSE on Beef Purchases in Alberta and Ontario Quick‐Serve Restaurants," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(3), pages 337-351, September.
    20. Martin Browning & Lars Gårn Hansen & Sinne Smed, 2019. "Heterogeneous Consumer Reactions to Health News," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 579-599.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jie Pang & Juan Yin & Guangchang Lu & Shimei Li, 2023. "Supply and Demand Changes, Pig Epidemic Shocks, and Pork Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Study Based on an SVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taylor, Mykel & Klaiber, H. Allen & Kuchler, Fred, 2016. "Changes in U.S. consumer response to food safety recalls in the shadow of a BSE scare," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 56-64.
    2. Yu‐Ru Lin & Drew Margolin & Xidao Wen, 2017. "Tracking and Analyzing Individual Distress Following Terrorist Attacks Using Social Media Streams," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1580-1605, August.
    3. Ningzhou Shen & Yinghua Song & Dan Liu & Dalia Streimikiene, 2021. "Food Quality Competition Among Companies and Government Food Safety Supervision Under Asymmetric Product Substitution," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(56), pages 221-221, February.
    4. Xingchen Lv & Jun Meng & Qiufeng Wu, 2022. "Dynamic Influence of Network Public Opinions on Price Fluctuation of Small Agricultural Products Based on NLP-TVP-VAR Model—Taking Garlic as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    5. Jiaping Zhang & Zhiyong Cai & Mingwang Cheng & Huirong Zhang & Heng Zhang & Zhongkun Zhu, 2019. "Association of Internet Use with Attitudes Toward Food Safety in China: A Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Taylor, Mykel R. & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2013. "Revealed Demand for Country-of-Origin Labeling of Meat in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Martin Browning & Lars Gårn Hansen & Sinne Smed, 2019. "Heterogeneous Consumer Reactions to Health News," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 579-599.
    8. Guo, Mengmeng & Liu, Jinge & Yu, Jianyu, 2021. "Social trust and food scandal exposure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Jiaqin Sun & Ruguo Fan & Zhou Yang, 2022. "An Evolutionary Game Analysis of Periodical Fluctuation in Food Safety Supervision," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, April.
    10. Zhaoxie Zeng & Yi Ding & Yue Zhang & Yongyu Guo, 2022. "What Breeds Conspiracy Theories in COVID-19? The Role of Risk Perception in the Belief in COVID-19 Conspiracy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-11, April.
    11. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Zhongkun Zhu, 2019. "Avian Influenza, Public Opinion, and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory, and Evidence from China’s Broiler Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-44, April.
    12. Rieger, Jörg & Kuhlgatz, Christian & Anders, Sven, 2016. "Food scandals, media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-92.
    13. Hoffmann, Vivian & Moser, Christine & Saak, Alexander, 2019. "Food safety in low and middle-income countries: The evidence through an economic lens," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Lan Yi & Congcong Duan & Jianping Tao & Yong Huang & Meihua Xing & Zhongkun Zhu & Caifeng Tan & Xinglin Chen, 2020. "Disease Outbreak, Health Scare, and Distance Decay: Evidence from HPAI Shocks in Chinese Meat Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-35, October.
    15. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Zhongkun Zhu & Caifeng Tan & Le Qi, 2019. "Food Safety Incident, Public Health Concern, and Risk Spillover Heterogeneity: Avian Influenza Shocks as Natural Experiments in China’s Consumer Markets," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-30, October.
    16. Stevens, T.M. & Aarts, N. & Termeer, C.J.A.M. & Dewulf, A., 2018. "Social media hypes about agro-food issues: Activism, scandals and conflicts," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 23-34.
    17. Roxanne E. Lewis & Michael G. Tyshenko, 2009. "The Impact of Social Amplification and Attenuation of Risk and the Public Reaction to Mad Cow Disease in Canada," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 714-728, May.
    18. Loredana Antronico & Roberto Coscarelli & Francesco De Pascale & Giovanni Gull?, 2018. "La comunicazione del rischio e la percezione pubblica dei disastri: il caso studio della frana di Maierato (Calabria, Italia)," PRISMA Economia - Societ? - Lavoro, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(3), pages 9-29.
    19. Hung‐Chih Hung & Tzu‐Wen Wang, 2011. "Determinants and Mapping of Collective Perceptions of Technological Risk: The Case of the Second Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 668-683, April.
    20. Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:3:p:658-:d:1094452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.