IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v126y2024ics0306919224000836.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring changes in pork demand, welfare effects, and the role of information sources in the event of an African swine fever outbreak in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Kashyap, Pratyoosh
  • Suter, Jordan F.
  • McKee, Sophie C.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) has never been detected in the U.S., but the current global outbreak threatens to change that. Although ASF poses no known risk to human health and is not a food safety concern, little is known about the response in U.S. consumer demand in case of an outbreak. We use an online survey experiment, following the one-and-one-half-bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation approach to estimate changes in consumers’ willingness to pay for pork in case of an ASF outbreak. Using these estimates, we find that demand for unprocessed pork (processed pork) products in the U.S. is predicted to shift downward by approximately 32 % (30 %) in the case of an ASF outbreak. Overall, the total annual welfare loss is predicted to be $55.46 billion in the pork market. We find that those consumers who are unaware about ASF, perceive it to be a risk to human health, and eat pork infrequently have a relatively larger reduction in willingness to pay for pork following an outbreak. Further, about 23 % of the survey respondents would stop purchasing pork products altogether following an ASF outbreak. Results also indicate that government institutions are most trusted when it comes to sharing news about food safety, strongly suggesting the importance of public institutions in generating awareness prior to and during an ASF outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Kashyap, Pratyoosh & Suter, Jordan F. & McKee, Sophie C., 2024. "Measuring changes in pork demand, welfare effects, and the role of information sources in the event of an African swine fever outbreak in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:126:y:2024:i:c:s0306919224000836
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919224000836
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102672?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann H., 2003. "Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 53-65, April.
    2. W. Michael Hanemann, 1989. "Welfare Evaluations in Contingent Valuation Experiments with Discrete Response Data: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1057-1061.
    3. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce A. McCarl & David Bessler, 2011. "The Effect of H1N1 (Swine Flu) Media Coverage on Agricultural Commodity Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 241-259.
    4. McCluskey, Jill J. & Grimsrud, Kristine M. & Ouchi, Hiromi & Wahl, Thomas I., 2003. "Consumer Response to Genetically Modified Food Products in Japan," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 222-231, October.
    5. Mario Mazzocchi & Alexandra Lobb & W. Bruce Traill & Alessio Cavicchi, 2008. "Food Scares and Trust: A European Study," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 2-24, February.
    6. Okrent, Abigail M. & Alston, Julian M., 2012. "The Demand for Disaggregated Food-Away-from-Home and Food-at-Home Products in the United States," Economic Research Report 132469, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Chuanhui Liao & Yu Luo & Weiwei Zhu, 2020. "Food Safety Trust, Risk Perception, and Consumers’ Response to Company Trust Repair Actions in Food Recall Crises," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Thomas Marsh & Ted Schroeder & James Mintert, 2004. "Impacts of meat product recalls on consumer demand in the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 897-909.
    9. H. Holly Wang & Paul Gardner de Beville, 2017. "The media impact of animal disease on the US meat demand," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 493-504, September.
    10. Joseph C. Cooper & Michael Hanemann & Giovanni Signorello, 2002. "One-and-One-Half-Bound Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 742-750, November.
    11. Delmond, Anthony R. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Yormirzoev, Mirzobobo & Rogova, Maria A., 2018. "Russian consumer willingness to pay for genetically modified food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 91-100.
    12. François Salanié & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Regulation in Happyville," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 665-679, April.
    13. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2003. "Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, April.
    14. Fawzi A. Taha & William F. Hahn, 2014. "The Impact of BSE on U.S. Exports of Beef and Pork," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 5-16, January.
    15. Neill, Clinton L. & Holcomb, Rodney B., 2019. "Does a food safety label matter? Consumer heterogeneity and fresh produce risk perceptions under the Food Safety Modernization Act," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 7-14.
    16. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Wolf, Christopher A., 2011. "On mandatory labeling of animal welfare attributes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 430-437, June.
    17. Nicholas E. Piggott & Thomas L. Marsh, 2004. "Does Food Safety Information Impact U.S. Meat Demand?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 154-174.
    18. Bennett, Richard M. & Blaney, Ralph J. P., 2003. "Estimating the benefits of farm animal welfare legislation using the contingent valuation method," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 85-98, July.
    19. Marcella Veronesi & Anna Alberini & Joseph C. Cooper, 2005. "Detecting Starting Point Bias in Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys," Working Papers 2005.119, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Dong Hee Suh & Charles B. Moss, 2017. "Decompositions of corn price effects: implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(4), pages 491-500, July.
    21. Marcella Veronesi & Anna Alberini & Joseph Cooper, 2011. "Implications of Bid Design and Willingness-To-Pay Distribution for Starting Point Bias in Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 199-215, June.
    22. Hyejin Yim & Bhagyashree Katare, 2023. "Effect of food safety recalls on consumer meat purchase: evidence from meat recalls 2007–2017," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(2), pages 250-271.
    23. Lee, Jiwon & Schulz, Lee L. & Hoffman, Elizabeth & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2023. "How can reporting on foreign animal diseases affect meat purchases? The case of African swine fever," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 89-111, April.
    24. Susan Miles & Lynn J. Frewer, 2003. "Public perception of scientific uncertainty in relation to food hazards," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 267-283, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Delmond, Anthony R. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Yormirzoev, Mirzobobo & Rogova, Maria A., 2018. "Russian consumer willingness to pay for genetically modified food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 91-100.
    2. Rosa Ferrer Zarzuela & Helena Perrone, 2017. "Consumers’ costly responses to product-harm crises," Economics Working Papers 1571, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.
    4. Pruitt, J. Ross & Holcomb, Rodney B., 2017. "Impacts of Food Safety Recalls and Consumer Information on Restaurant Performance," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 48(3), November.
    5. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2005. "Comparing Heterogeneous Consumption in US and Japanese Meat and Fish Demand," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19567, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Matthew Houser & Jeffrey H Dorfman & Roderick M Rejesus, 2019. "The Long‐Term Effects of Meat Recalls on Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 235-248, June.
    7. H. Holly Wang & Paul Gardner de Beville, 2017. "The media impact of animal disease on the US meat demand," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 493-504, September.
    8. Chin-Huang Huang & Chiung-Hsia Wang, 2015. "Estimating the Total Economic Value of Cultivated Flower Land in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Saghaian, Sayed H. & Reed, Michael R., 2007. "Consumer Reaction to Beef Safety Scares," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19.
    10. Cook, David & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur & Kristófersson, Daði Már, 2018. "Willingness to pay for the preservation of geothermal areas in Iceland – The contingent valuation studies of Eldvörp and Hverahlíð," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 97-108.
    11. Kwak, So-Yoon & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2015. "The public’s value for developing ocean energy technology in the Republic of Korea: A contingent valuation study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 432-439.
    12. Richard T. Carson & Miko_aj Czajkowski, 2014. "The discrete choice experiment approach to environmental contingent valuation," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 9, pages 202-235, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Yeboah, Godfred & Maynard, Leigh J., 2004. "The Impact Of Bse, Fmd, And U.S. Export Promotion Expenditures On Japanese Meat Demand," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19978, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Ollinger, Michael & Moore, Danna L., 2007. "Market Forces, Plant Technology, and Food Safety Technology Use," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9853, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Luigi Cembalo & Daniela Caso & Valentina Carfora & Francesco Caracciolo & Alessia Lombardi & Gianni Cicia, 2019. "The “Land of Fires” Toxic Waste Scandal and Its Effect on Consumer Food Choices," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. repec:ags:aaea22:335852 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lee, Gunwoo & Kim, Soo-Yeob & Lee, Min-Kyu, 2015. "Economic evaluation of vessel traffic service (VTS): A contingent valuation study," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 149-154.
    18. Yadavalli, Anita & Jones, Keithly, 2014. "Does media influence consumer demand? The case of lean finely textured beef in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 219-227.
    19. Taylor, Mykel & Klaiber, H. Allen & Kuchler, Fred, 2016. "Changes in U.S. consumer response to food safety recalls in the shadow of a BSE scare," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 56-64.
    20. Bakhtavoryan, Rafael & Capps, Oral, Jr. & Salin, Victoria, 2012. "Impact of Food Contamination on Brands: A Demand Systems Estimation of Peanut Butter," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-13, December.
    21. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum & Hu, Wuyang & Ying, Ruiyao, 2015. "Fear and Trust: How Risk Perceptions of Avian Influenza Affect the Demand for Chicken," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 202077, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:126:y:2024:i:c:s0306919224000836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.